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Industrial recommender systems are frequently tasked with approximating probabilities for multiple, often closely related, user actions. For example, predicting if a user will click on an advertisement and if they will then purchase the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-09-01 Conor O'Brien , Kin Sum Liu , James Neufeld , Rafael Barreto , Jonathan J Hunt

In recommendation scenarios, there are two long-standing challenges, i.e., selection bias and data sparsity, which lead to a significant drop in prediction accuracy for both Click-Through Rate (CTR) and post-click Conversion Rate (CVR)…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Feng Zhu , Mingjie Zhong , Xinxing Yang , Longfei Li , Lu Yu , Tiehua Zhang , Jun Zhou , Chaochao Chen , Fei Wu , Guanfeng Liu , Yan Wang

In the e-commerce advertising scenario, estimating the true probabilities (known as a calibrated estimate) on Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) is critical. Previous research has introduced numerous solutions for addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Shuai Yang , Hao Yang , Zhuang Zou , Linhe Xu , Shuo Yuan , Yifan Zeng

Deep Reinforcement Learning is widely used for aligning Large Language Models (LLM) with human preference. However, the conventional reward modelling is predominantly dependent on human annotations provided by a select cohort of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Dexun Li , Cong Zhang , Kuicai Dong , Derrick Goh Xin Deik , Ruiming Tang , Yong Liu

Quantification learning deals with the task of estimating the target label distribution under label shift. In this paper, we first present a unifying framework, distribution feature matching (DFM), that recovers as particular instances…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Bastien Dussap , Gilles Blanchard , Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif

Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Sahar Koohfar , Wubeshet Woldemariam

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Yu-Jie Zhang , Zhen-Yu Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-30 Hui Xu , Robert Tibshirani

The stochastic variational inequality problem (SVIP) is an equilibrium model that includes random variables and has been widely applied in various fields such as economics and engineering. Expected residual minimization (ERM) is an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Atsushi Hori , Yuya Yamakawa , Nobuo Yamashita

Accurate estimation of post-click conversion rate is critical for building recommender systems, which has long been confronted with sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. Methods in the Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) family…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Hao Wang , Tai-Wei Chang , Tianqiao Liu , Jianmin Huang , Zhichao Chen , Chao Yu , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction plays an important role in online advertising systems. On the one hand, traditional CTR prediction models capture the collaborative signals in tabular data via feature interaction modeling, but they lose…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Rui Dong , Wentao Ouyang , Xiangzheng Liu

Conversion Rate (\emph{CVR}) prediction in modern industrial e-commerce platforms is becoming increasingly important, which directly contributes to the final revenue. In order to address the well-known sample selection bias (\emph{SSB}) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-21 Hong Wen , Jing Zhang , Fuyu Lv , Wentian Bao , Tianyi Wang , Zulong Chen

Post-click conversion, as a strong signal indicating the user preference, is salutary for building recommender systems. However, accurately estimating the post-click conversion rate (CVR) is challenging due to the selection bias, i.e., the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Siyuan Guo , Lixin Zou , Yiding Liu , Wenwen Ye , Suqi Cheng , Shuaiqiang Wang , Hechang Chen , Dawei Yin , Yi Chang

Making accurate forecasts for a complex system is a challenge in various practical applications. The major difficulty in solving such a problem concerns nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics with time-varying characteristics. Takens' delay…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-09 Hao Peng , Wei Wang , Pei Chen , Rui Liu

Monitoring of project performance is a crucial task of project managers that significantly affect the project success or failure. Earned Value Management (EVM) is a well-known tool to evaluate project performance and effective technique for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-20 Nooshin Yousefi , Ahmad Sobhani , Leila Moslemi Naeni , Kenneth R. Currie

Dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) is one of the most effective techniques for reducing energy consumption in embedded and real-time systems. However, traditional DVS algorithms have inherent limitations on their capability in energy saving…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2008-09-30 Feng Xia , Longhua Ma , Wenhong Zhao , Youxian Sun , Jinxiang Dong

Recommendation models trained on the user feedback collected from deployed recommendation systems are commonly biased. User feedback is considerably affected by the exposure mechanism, as users only provide feedback on the items exposed to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Hangtong Xu , Yuanbo Xu , Yongjian Yang , Fuzhen Zhuang , Hui Xiong

The predictions of click through rate (CTR) and conversion rate (CVR) play a crucial role in the success of ad-recommendation systems. A Deep Hierarchical Ensemble Network (DHEN) has been proposed to integrate multiple feature crossing…

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Quanyu Dai , Haoxuan Li , Peng Wu , Zhenhua Dong , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Rui Zhang , Rui zhang , Jie Sun

This paper presents an innovative approach to Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) by introducing the Extreme Value Dynamic Benchmarking Method (EVDBM). EVDBM integrates extreme value theory to detect extreme events and is coupled with the novel…