Related papers: Statistical techniques to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 …

Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…

Using recent data from voluntary mass testing, I provide credible bounds on prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 for Austrian counties in early December 2020. When estimating prevalence, a natural missing data problem arises: no test results are…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

In February 2020 the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Germany. Since then the local public health offices have been responsible to monitor and react to the dynamics of the pandemic. One of their major tasks is to…

Increasing number in global COVID-19 cases demands for mathematical model to analyze the interaction between the virus dynamics and the response of innate and adaptive immunity. Here, based on the assumption of a weak and delayed response…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants that evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic have appeared to differ in severity, based on analyses of single-country datasets. With decreased SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing, international collaborative studies…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

Based on the SIRD-model a new model including time-delay is proposed for a description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. All data were analysed by representing all quantities as a function of the susceptible…

Modeling the spread of COVID-19 is crucial for informing public health policy. All models for COVID-19 epidemiology rely on parameters describing the dynamics of the infection process. The meanings of epidemiological parameters like R_0,…

The widely used gene quantisation technique, Lateral Flow Device (LFD), is now commonly used to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. It is enabling the control and prevention of the spread of the virus. Depending on the viral load, LFD have…

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…

While the SARS-CoV-2 keeps spreading world-wide, comparing its evolution across different nations is a timely challenge of both theoretical and practical importance. The large variety of dissimilar and country-dependent epidemiological…

The rapid emergence and the disastrous impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on public health, societies, and economies around the world has created an urgent need for understanding the pathways…

We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…

We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We…