Related papers: Bayesian Quantile-Based Portfolio Selection
This paper proposes analytic forms of portfolio CoVaR and CoCVaR on the normal tempered stable market model. Since CoCVaR captures the relative risk of the portfolio with respect to a benchmark return, we apply it to the relative portfolio…
In portfolio analysis, the traditional approach of replacing population moments with sample counterparts may lead to suboptimal portfolio choices. I show that optimal portfolio weights can be estimated using a machine learning (ML)…
Value at Risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a…
Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…
Hybrid quantum/classical variational algorithms can be implemented on noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers and can be used to find solutions for combinatorial optimization problems. Approaches discussed in the literature minimize the…
A highly relevant problem of modern finance is the design of Value-at-Risk (VaR) optimal portfolios. Due to contemporary financial regulations, banks and other financial institutions are tied to use the risk measure to control their credit,…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…
Financial portfolios are often optimized for maximum profit while subject to a constraint formulated in terms of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This amounts to solving a linear problem. However, in its original formulation this…
This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…
In this paper, we consider the nonconvex minimization problem of the value-at-risk (VaR) that arises from financial risk analysis. By considering this problem as a special linear program with linear complementarity constraints (a bilevel…
The majority of standard approaches to financial portfolio optimization (PO) are based on the mean-variance (MV) framework. Given a risk aversion coefficient, the MV procedure yields a single portfolio that represents the optimal trade-off…
The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…
The geology of oil reservoirs is largely unknown. Consequently, the reservoir models used for production optimization are subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize the associated risk, the oil literature has mainly used ensemble-based…
We study a linear-quadratic, optimal control problem on a discrete, finite time horizon with distributional ambiguity, in which the cost is assessed via Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We take steps toward deriving a scalable dynamic…
Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…
We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where…
We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…
The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…