Related papers: Bayesian Quantile-Based Portfolio Selection
${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…
This paper considers the mean variance portfolio management problem. We examine portfolios which contain both primary and derivative securities. The challenge in this context is due to portfolio's nonlinearities. The delta-gamma…
Portfolio optimization is a routine asset management operation conducted in financial institutions around the world. However, under real-world constraints such as turnover limits and transaction costs, its formulation becomes a…
In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy…
We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the $k$ factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The…
Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…
Modern methods for Bayesian regression beyond the Gaussian response setting are often computationally impractical or inaccurate in high dimensions. In fact, as discussed in recent literature, bypassing such a trade-off is still an open…
We introduce the Value-at-Risk Constrained Policy Optimization algorithm (VaR-CPO), a sample efficient and conservative method designed to optimize Value-at-Risk (VaR) constrained reinforcement learning (RL) problems. Empirically, we…
We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance $\tau$. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision…
This paper studies an optimal investing problem for a retiree facing longevity risk and living standard risk. We formulate the investing problem as a portfolio choice problem under a time-varying risk capacity constraint. We derive the…
We study the dynamic investment decisions of investors who prioritise specific quantiles of outcomes over their expected values. Downside-focused agents targeting low quantiles reduce risk in states with high variance, while those with a…
Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…
We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…
We consider the mean--variance portfolio optimization problem under the game theoretic framework and without risk-free assets. The problem is solved semi-explicitly by applying the extended Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation. Although the…
We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample…
This paper is concerned with optimizing the global minimum-variance portfolio's (GMVP) weights in high-dimensional settings where both observation and population dimensions grow at a bounded ratio. Optimizing the GMVP weights is highly…
The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from…
In this paper, we propose the multivariate range Value-at-Risk (MRVaR) and the multivariate range covariance (MRCov) as two risk measures and explore their desirable properties in risk management. In particular, we explain that such…
This paper investigates an optimal investment problem under the tail Value at Risk (tail VaR, also known as expected shortfall, conditional VaR, average VaR) and portfolio insurance constraints confronted by a defined-contribution pension…