Related papers: Investigating climate tipping points under various…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
The mitigation of climate change requires a fundamental transition of the energy system. Affordability, reliability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions constitute central but often conflicting targets for this energy transition.…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…
It is widely believed that the carbonate-silicate cycle is the main agent to trigger deglaciations by CO$_2$ greenhouse warming on Earth and on Earth-like planets when they get in frozen state. Here we use a 3D Global Climate Model to…
The paper has been suggested by two observations: 1) the atmospheric CO$_2$ growth rate is smaller than that ascribed to the emission of fossil fuels combustion, 2) the fossil fuel reserves are finite. The first observation has lead the way…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental…
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
This paper studies stochastic convergence of per capita CO$_2$ emissions in 28 OECD countries for the 1901-2009 period. The analysis is carried out at two aggregation levels, first for the whole set of countries (joint analysis) and then…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range.…
Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that they merge at the point in time where the slope changes. We…
We propose a framework to study tipping points in reaction-diffusion equations (RDEs) in one spatial dimension, where the reaction term decays in space (asymptotically homogeneous) and varies linearly with time (nonautonomous) due to an…
This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…
A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions…
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…
Collisions between hot hydrogen atoms and CO$_2$ play a central role in energy transfer and atmospheric escape in CO$_2$-rich planetary atmospheres. We present quantum mechanical $j_z$-conserving coupled-states calculations of…
Reduced precision floating point arithmetic is now routinely deployed in numerical weather forecasting over short timescales. However the applicability of these reduced precision techniques to longer timescale climate simulations -…