Related papers: Investigating climate tipping points under various…
Carbon dioxide is one of the major contributors to the radiative forcing, increasing both the temperature and the humidity of Earth's atmosphere. If the stellar irradiance increases and water becomes abundant in the stratosphere of an…
Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
We study a two-layer energy balance model, that allows for vertical exchanges between a surface layer and the atmosphere. The evolution equations of the surface temperature and the atmospheric temperature are coupled by the emission of…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate…
The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
In the last 150 years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. This has caused an increase in the average global temperatures by nearly 0.7 degree centigrade due to the…
Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this…
We use a three-dimensional model to calculate steady-state climates at various intervals in Earth's future, across a parameter space of increasing insolation and decreasing CO$_2$ mixing ratio. Comparison with prior results shows an…
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
Even if their detection is for now challenging, observation of small terrestrial planets will be easier in a near future thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a…
Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid and irreversible qualitative changes or `tipping', due to increasing climate warming. Potential tipping elements include Arctic sea-ice, Atlantic meridional overturning…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the…
Using a 3D General Circulation Model, the Unified Model, we present results from simulations of a tidally-locked TRAPPIST-1e with varying carbon dioxide CO2 and methane CH4 gas concentrations, and their corresponding prescribed spherical…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…