Related papers: Production Networks and War
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
Natural gas demand is a crucial factor for predicting natural gas prices and thus has a direct influence on the power system. However, existing methods face challenges in assessing the impact of shocks, such as the outbreak of the…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Social networks have well documented effects at the individual and aggregate level. Consequently it is often useful to understand how an attempt to influence a network will change its structure and consequently achieve other goals. We…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…
Our paper presents a methodology to study the heterogeneous effects of economy-wide shocks and applies it to the case of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on exports. This methodology is applicable in scenarios where the pervasive nature of…
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…
We analysed two large collaboration networks -- the Microsoft Academic Graph (1800-2020) and Internet Movie Database (1900-2020) -- to quantify network responses to major historical events. Our analysis revealed four properties of…
The trade tension between the U.S. and China since 2018 has caused a steady decoupling of the world's two largest economies. The pandemic outbreak in 2020 complicated this process and had numerous unanticipated repercussions. This paper…
I study the role of industries' position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination…
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix $G$ of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years…
Here we investigate the dynamics of indirect reciprocity on networks, a type of social dynamics in which the attitude of individuals, either cooperative or antagonistic, toward other individuals changes over time by their actions and mutual…
Reliance on third-party libraries is now commonplace in contemporary software engineering. Being open source in nature, these libraries should advocate for a world where the freedoms and opportunities of open source software can be enjoyed…
Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
The Great Recession highlighted the role of financial and uncertainty shocks as drivers of business cycle fluctuations. However, the fact that uncertainty shocks may affect economic activity by tightening financial conditions makes…
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics…
Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider…
Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm…