Related papers: Path-dependent course of epidemic: are two phases …
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
The COVID-19 pandemic led several countries to resort to social distancing, the only known way to slow down the spread of the virus and keep the health system under control. Here we use an individual based model (IBM) to study how the…
We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of…
We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where…
Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties, but will also interact with individuals in other…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
The paper addresses the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. The constraints on the availability of health facilities - both infrastructure and health workers determine the…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
In this research paper we modify a classical SIR model to better adapt to the dynamics of COVID-19, that is we propose the heterogeneous SQAIRD model where COVID-19 spreads over a population of economic agents, namely: the elderly, adults…
Motivated by the swift global transmission of infectious diseases, we present a comprehensive framework for network-based epidemic control. Our aim is to curb epidemics using two different approaches. In the first approach, we introduce an…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic…
This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related…
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of…
Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The existing studies on the effective epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model generally…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…