Related papers: Simultaneous inference for time-varying models

Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…

Pooled logistic regression models are commonly applied in survival analysis. However, the standard implementation can be computationally demanding, which is further exacerbated when using the nonparametric bootstrap for inference. To ease…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

In this paper, we propose to construct confidence bands by bootstrapping the debiased kernel density estimator (for density estimation) and the debiased local polynomial regression estimator (for regression analysis). The idea of using a…

We propose a versatile and computationally efficient estimating equation method for a class of hierarchical multiplicative generalized linear mixed models with additive dispersion components, based on explicit modelling of the covariance…

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…

In the common partially linear single-index model we establish a Bahadur representation for a smoothing spline estimator of all model parameters and use this result to prove the joint weak convergence of the estimator of the index link…

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…

This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

Bootstrapping is often applied to get confidence limits for semiparametric inference of a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Bootstrapping with replacement can be computationally expensive and problematic when…

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…

This article develops a general detection theory for speech analysis based on time-varying autoregressive models, which themselves generalize the classical linear predictive speech analysis framework. This theory leads to a computationally…

GARCH models are useful tools in the investigation of phenomena, where volatility changes are prominent features, like most financial data. The parameter estimation via quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and its properties are by now well…

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust…

We present a practical approach for computing the sandwich variance estimator in two-stage regression model settings. As a motivating example for two-stage regression, we consider regression calibration, a popular approach for addressing…

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…