Related papers: Simultaneous inference for time-varying models

Time series of counts are frequently analyzed using generalized integer-valued autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH). These models employ response functions to map a vector of past observations and past…

We propose a residual and wild bootstrap methodology for individual and simultaneous inference in high-dimensional linear models with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic errors. We establish asymptotic consistency for simultaneous…

This paper introduces a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on a vec-representation. The model includes instantaneous spatial autoregressive spill-over effects in the conditional…

We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…

We propose new resampling-based approaches to construct asymptotically valid time simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative hazard functions in multi-state Cox models. In particular, we exemplify the methodology in detail for the simple…

In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study…

Semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) models directly relate the predicted failure times to covariates and are a useful alternative to models that work on the hazard function or the survival function. For case-cohort data, much less…

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

The HGARCH model allows long-memory impact in volatilities. A new HGARCH model with time-varying amplitude is considered in this paper. We show the stability of the model as well. A score test is introduced to check the time-varying…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

This work extends local linear regression to Banach space-valued time series for estimating smoothly varying means and their derivatives in non-stationary data. The asymptotic properties of both the standard and bias-reduced Jackknife…

This paper proposes a class of parametric multiple-index time series models that involve linear combinations of time trends, stationary variables and unit root processes as regressors. The inclusion of the three different types of time…

In this paper, we construct the simultaneous confidence band (SCB) for the nonparametric component in partially linear panel data models with fixed effects. We remove the fixed effects, and further obtain the estimators of parametric and…

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

This paper presents a novel dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on spatiotemporal ARCH models to forecast volatility in the US stock market. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the model…

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

We develop joint confidence regions for linear regression coefficients when the regressors and errors are jointly stationary and ergodic with unspecified serial dependence. The method applies random smoothing, using an independent auxiliary…