Related papers: Making mean-estimation more efficient using an MCM…

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

This paper focusses on the optimal implementation of a Mean Variance Estimation network (MVE network) (Nix and Weigend, 1994). This type of network is often used as a building block for uncertainty estimation methods in a regression…

Sensitivity analysis is a process of computing sensitivity indices, which are certain measures of importance of parameters in influencing the outputs of mathematical models. Sensitivity indices computed in variance-based sensitivity…

As deep neural network (DNN) models are growing exponentially in size, their deployment on resource-constrained edge platforms is becoming increasingly challenging. In-memory-computing (IMC) with non-volatile memories (NVMs) has emerged as…

This work aims efficiently estimating the posterior distribution of kinetic parameters for dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) imaging given a measurement of time of activity curve. Considering the inherent information loss from…

Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

Online controlled experiments play a crucial role in enabling data-driven decisions across a wide range of companies. Variance reduction is an effective technique to improve the sensitivity of experiments, achieving higher statistical power…

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

We report on the use of a stochastic trace estimator algorithm, based on mutually unbiased bases, for evaluating the trace of a matrix differential operator appearing in the context of lattice simulations for the discretized superstring…

We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, is consistent,…

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

There is a tension between robustness and efficiency when designing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. Here we focus on robustness with respect to tuning parameters, showing that more sophisticated algorithms tend to be…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…

We introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler called the Markov Interacting Importance Sampler (MIIS). The MIIS sampler uses conditional importance sampling (IS) approximations to jointly sample the current state of the Markov…

We consider the problem of minimizing the number of matrix-vector queries needed for accurate trace estimation in the dynamic setting where our underlying matrix is changing slowly, such as during an optimization process. Specifically, for…

In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, the thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the…

Spectral subsampling MCMC was recently proposed to speed up Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for long stationary univariate time series by subsampling periodogram observations in the frequency domain. This article extends the approach to…

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…