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Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

Vehicle telematics provides granular data for dynamic driving risk assessment, but current methods often rely on aggregated metrics (e.g., harsh braking counts) and do not fully exploit the rich time-series structure of telematics data. In…

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…

We propose SYNCE (synchronized step correlation enhancement), a new algorithm for coupling Markov chains within multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) estimators. We apply this algorithm to solve Bayesian inverse problems using…

We point out a limitation of the mutual information neural estimation (MINE) where the network fails to learn at the initial training phase, leading to slow convergence in the number of training iterations. To solve this problem, we propose…

I introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which sampling from a distribution with density pi(x) is done using updates operating on an "ensemble" of states. The current state x is first stochastically mapped to an ensemble,…

We propose a new inference framework, named MOSAIC, for change-point detection in dynamic networks with the simultaneous low-rank and sparse-change structure. We establish the minimax rate of detection boundary, which relies on the sparsity…

Experimentally observed networks of interacting dynamical systems are inferred from recorded multivariate time series by evaluating a statistical measure of dependence, usually the cross-correlation coefficient, or mutual information. These…

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

Estimating the clutter-plus-noise covariance matrix in high-dimensional STAP is challenging in the presence of Internal Clutter Motion (ICM) and a high noise floor. The problem becomes more difficult in low-sample regimes, where the Sample…

Existing risk-aware multi-armed bandit models typically focus on risk measures of individual options such as variance. As a result, they cannot be directly applied to important real-world online decision making problems with correlated…

Adversarial robustness remains a critical challenge in deploying neural network classifiers, particularly in real-time systems where ground-truth labels are unavailable during inference. This paper investigates \textit{Volatility in…

Accurate estimation of the tire slip ratio is critical for vehicle safety, as it is necessary for vehicle control purposes. In this paper, an intelligent tire system is presented to develop a novel slip ratio estimation model using machine…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…

Weighted Poincar\'e-type and related inequalities provide upper bounds of the variance of functions. Their application in sensitivity analysis allows for quickly identifying the active inputs. Although the efficiency in prioritizing inputs…

Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…

The Trail Making Test (TMT) is one of the most popular neuropsychological tests in the clinical assessment of executive functions (EF) and research in a wide range of clinical conditions. In addition to its sensitivity to executive…

Clinical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) collect hundreds of measurements spanning various metric types (e.g., laboratory tests, cognitive/motor assessments, etc.) across 100s-1000s of subjects to evaluate the effect of a treatment, but…