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Noncompliance and missing data often occur in randomized trials, which complicate the inference of causal effects. When both noncompliance and missing data are present, previous papers proposed moment and maximum likelihood estimators for…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-04 Hua Chen , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Ziyang Liu , Niwen Zhou , Peng Wu , Xu Guo

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

Clinical trials with a hybrid control arm (a control arm constructed from a combination of randomized patients and real-world data on patients receiving usual care in standard clinical practice) have the potential to decrease the cost of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 Joanna Harton , Brian Segal , Ronac Mamtani , Nandita Mitra , Rebecca Hubbard

We consider time to treatment initiation. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zhichen Zhao , Andrew Ying , Ronghui Xu

Active-controlled trials with non-inferiority objectives are often used when effective interventions are available, but new options may offer advantages or meet public health needs. In these trials, participants are randomized to an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Fei Gao , Holly Janes

The analysis of platform trials can be enhanced by utilizing non-concurrent controls. Since including this data might also introduce bias in the treatment effect estimators if time trends are present, methods for incorporating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Pavla Krotka , Martin Posch , Marta Bofill Roig

With the evolution of single-cell RNA sequencing techniques into a standard approach in genomics, it has become possible to conduct cohort-level causal inferences based on single-cell-level measurements. However, the individual gene…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Jin-Hong Du , Zhenghao Zeng , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

In randomized clinical trials, adjustments for baseline covariates at both design and analysis stages are highly encouraged by regulatory agencies. A recent trend is to use a model-assisted approach for covariate adjustment to gain…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Yanyao Yi , Qingyuan Zhao

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Samantha G Dean , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Laura Forastiere

The amount of data collected from patients involved in clinical trials is continuously growing. All patient characteristics are potential covariates that could be used to improve clinical trial analysis and power. However, the restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-29 Samuel Branders , Alvaro Pereira , Guillaume Bernard , Marie Ernst , Adelin Albert

We argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are special even among settings where average treatment effects are identified by a nonparametric unconfoundedness assumption. This claim follows from two results of Robins and Ritov (1997):…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 P. M. Aronow , James M. Robins , Theo Saarinen , Fredrik Sävje , Jasjeet Sekhon

Platform trials are multi-arm designs that simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments for a single disease within the same overall trial structure. Unlike traditional randomized controlled trials, they allow treatment arms to enter and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Michele Santacatterina , Federico Macchiavelli Giron , Xinyi Zhang , Ivan Diaz

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-08 Chencheng Cai , Xu Zhang , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

The power of a large clinical trial can be adversely affected by low recruitment, follow-up and adherence rates. External pilot trials estimate these rates and use them, via pre-specified decision rules, to determine if the definitive trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-16 Duncan T. Wilson , Rebecca E. A. Walwyn , Julia Brown , Amanda J. Farrin