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There is a growing interest in the implementation of platform trials, which provide the flexibility to incorporate new treatment arms during the trial and the ability to halt treatments early based on lack of benefit or observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-25 Peter Greenstreet , Thomas Jaki , Alun Bedding , Pavel Mozgunov

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-12 Alihan Hüyük , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covariates and seek to use this information to personalize…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Sheyu Li , Valentyn Litvin , Charles F. Manski

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited sample sizes due to high costs and lengthy recruitment periods, compromising precision in treatment effect estimation. External real-world control data offer a valuable…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-05 Peng Wu , Jile Chaoge , Shu Yang

Integrating information from multiple data sources can enable more precise, timely, and generalizable decisions. However, it is challenging to make valid causal inferences using observational data from multiple data sources. For example, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Larry Han , Yige Li , Bijan A. Niknam , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-05 Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Jennifer C. Nelson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

Over time, clinical trials have increasingly incorporated complex design and analysis elements such as interim analyses, adaptations, multiple endpoints, and sophisticated multiplicity schemes for multiple endpoints and/or treatment arms…

Individualized treatment rules aim to identify if, when, which, and to whom treatment should be applied. A globally aging population, rising healthcare costs, and increased access to patient-level data have created an urgent need for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-04 Ying-Qi Zhao , Eric B. Laber , Yang Ning , Sumona Saha , Bruce Sands

Gathering the most information by picking the least amount of data is a common task in experimental design or when exploring an unknown environment in reinforcement learning and robotics. A widely used measure for quantifying the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-17 Johannes Kulick , Robert Lieck , Marc Toussaint

We investigate the optimal design of experimental studies that have pre-treatment outcome data available. The average treatment effect is estimated as the difference between the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control units. A…

When treatment effect modifiers influence the decision to participate in a randomized trial, the average treatment effect in the population represented by the randomized individuals will differ from the effect in other populations. In this…

Recent approaches in causal inference have proposed estimating average causal effects that are local to some subpopulation, often for reasons of efficiency. These inferential targets are sometimes data-adaptive, in that they are dependent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-08 Peter M. Aronow

The question of how individual patient data from cohort studies or historical clinical trials can be leveraged for designing more powerful, or smaller yet equally powerful, clinical trials becomes increasingly important in the era of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-01 Sandra Siegfried , Stephen Senn , Torsten Hothorn

In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive empirical likelihood-based approach for treatment effect estimation and inference, which overcomes the obstacle of the traditional empirical likelihood-based approaches in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Wei Liang , Ying Yan

While randomized trials may be the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the treatment intervention, in some special circumstances, single-arm clinical trials utilizing external control may be considered. The causal treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Huan Wang , Fei Wu , Yeh-Fong Chen

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan