Related papers: Estimating the Copula of a class of Time-Changed B…

Local perturbations of a Brownian motion are considered. As a limit we obtain a non-Markov process that behaves as a reflected Brownian motion on the positive half line until its local time at zero reaches some exponential level, then…

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph…

In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by…

We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…

A key tool to carry out inference on the unknown copula when modeling a continuous multivariate distribution is a nonparametric estimator known as the empirical copula. One popular way of approximating its sampling distribution consists of…

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

We propose to use nonparametric Bernstein copulas as bivariate pair-copulas in high-dimensional vine models. The resulting smooth and nonparametric vine copulas completely obviate the error-prone need for choosing the pair-copulas from…

The stochastic motion of a particle with long-range correlated increments (the moving phase) which is intermittently interrupted by immobilizations (the traping phase) in a disordered medium is considered in the presence of an external…

We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…

We construct the least-square estimator for the unknown drift parameter in the multifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and establish its strong consistency in the non-ergodic case. The proofs are based on the asymptotic bounds with…

In this paper we present new theoretical results on optimal estimation of certain random quantities based on high frequency observations of a L\'evy process. More specifically, we investigate the asymptotic theory for the conditional mean…

This paper presents a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a…

We provide a surprising new application of classical approximation theory to a fundamental asset-pricing model of mathematical finance. Specifically, we calculate an analytic value for the correlation coefficient between exponential…

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

In this work we propose a semiparametric bivariate copula whose density is defined by a piecewise constant function on disjoint squares. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and prove that they reduce to the…

An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated co-volatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and nonsynchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach…

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

We use a Magnus approximation at the level of the equations of motion for a harmonic system with a time-dependent frequency, to find an expansion for its in-out effective action, and a unitary expansion for the Bogoliubov transformation…

In this work we study the problem of constructing stochastic processes with a predetermined covariance decay by parameterizing its marginals and a given family of copulas. We show that the proposed methodology is compatibility-free and…

Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…