Related papers: Dynamics of a Stochastic COVID-19 Epidemic Model w…
The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed…
We study the effects of demographic stochasticity on the long-term dynamics of biological coevolution models of community assembly. The noise is induced in order to check the validity of deterministic population dynamics. While mutualistic…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
Evolutionary game theory has traditionally employed deterministic models to describe population dynamics. These models, due to their inherent nonlinearities, can exhibit deterministic chaos, where population fluctuations follow complex,…
It is well established that people with diabetes are more likely to have serious complications from COVID-19. Nearly 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in the African region are linked to diabetes. World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 18.3% of…
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…
We investigate the stochastic dynamics of an active particle moving at a constant speed under the influence of a fluctuating torque. In our model the angular velocity is generated by a constant torque and random fluctuations described as a…
We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
We investigate the mechanisms behind the quasi-periodic outbursts on the Covid-19 epidemics. Data for France and Germany show that the patterns of outbursts exhibit a qualitative change in early 2022, which appears in a change in their…
A theoretical approach for characterising the influence of asymmetry of noise distribution on the escape rate of a multi-stable system is presented. This was carried out via the estimation of an action, which is defined as an exponential…
The present paper is devoted to the study of the long term dynamics of diffusion processes modelling a single species that experiences both demographic and environmental stochasticity. In our setting, the long term dynamics of the diffusion…
COVID-19 is a global epidemic. Till now, there is no remedy for this epidemic. However, isolation and social distancing are seemed to be effective preventive measures to control this pandemic. Therefore, in this paper, an optimization…