English
Related papers

Related papers: Dynamics of a Stochastic COVID-19 Epidemic Model w…

200 papers

We study the effect of noisy infection (contact) and recovery rates on the distribution of outbreak sizes in the stochastic SIR model. The rates are modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with finite correlation time and variance, which we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-28 Jason Hindes , Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero , Ira B. Schwartz , Michael Assaf

A key goal of systems biology is the predictive mathematical description of gene regulatory circuits. Different approaches are used such as deterministic and stochastic models, models that describe cell growth and division explicitly or…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-12 Rahul Marathe , Veronika Bierbaum , David Gomez , Stefan Klumpp

This study investigates an SEIS PDE model with a free boundary, which captures the dynamics of epidemic transmission, including diseases like COVID-19. This parabolic PDE system is analyzed in a rotationally symmetric domain, and the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Aesol Jeon , Ki-Ahm Lee

Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-03-11 Florent Ouabo Kamkumo , Ibrahim Mbouandi Njiasse , Ralf Wunderlich

This article is concerned with a mutualism ecological model with Levy noise. The local existence and uniqueness of a positive solution are obtained with positive initial value, and the asymptotic behavior to the problem is studied.…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-07-27 Mei Li , Hongjun Gao , Binjun Wang

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

Recently, emerging epidemics like COVID-19 and its variants require predictive mathematical models to implement suitable responses in order to limit their negative and profound impact on society. The SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRemoved) system…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-26 Driss Kiouach , Yassine Sabbar

This paper considers stochastic population dynamics driven by Levy noise. The contributions of this paper lie in that (a) Using Khasminskii-Mao theorem, we show that the stochastic differential equation associated with the model has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-09 Jianhai Bao , Chenggui Yuan

A coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed, then a novel analysis approach for finding the ultimate lower bound of COVID-19 infectious individuals is proposed, which means that…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-01 Songbai Guo , Yuling Xue , Xiliang Li , Zuohuan Zheng

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-12 Buddhananda Banerjee , Pradumn Kumar Pandey , Bibhas Adhikari

A well-known characteristic of pandemics such as COVID-19 is the high level of transmission heterogeneity in the infection spread: not all infected individuals spread the disease at the same rate and some individuals (superspreaders) are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-26 Yaron Oz , Ittai Rubinstein , Muli Safra

Frequency dependent selection and demographic fluctuations play important roles in evolutionary and ecological processes. Under frequency dependent selection, the average fitness of the population may increase or decrease based on…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-23 Weini Huang , Christoph Hauert , Arne Traulsen

Understanding under what conditions interacting populations, whether they be plants, animals, or viral particles, coexist is a question of theoretical and practical importance in population biology. Both biotic interactions and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-04-26 Sebastian J. Schreiber , Michel Benaïm , Kolawolé A. S. Atchadé

We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2021-06-16 Gil Ariel , Yoram Louzoun

COVID-19 outbreaks have proven to be very difficult to isolate and extinguish before they spread out. An important reason behind this might be that epidemiological barriers consisting in stopping symptomatic people are likely to fail…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-31 Ezequiel Alvarez , Leandro Da Rold , Federico Lamagna , Manuel Szewc

In genetic circuits, when the mRNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically-distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-25 Shay Be'er , Metar Heller-Algazi , Michael Assaf

We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-10 Anatoly Zhigljavsky , Roger Whitaker , Ivan Fesenko , Kobi Kremnizer , Jack Noonan

We study the epidemic spreading on spatial networks where the probability that two nodes are connected decays with their distance as a power law. As the exponent of the distance dependence grows, model networks smoothly transition from the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-03 Matúš Medo

Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…

The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-12-24 Susmita Sadhu , Christian Kuehn