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We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Alexander Zimin , Christoph H. Lampert

We develop and analyze a principled approach to kernel ridge regression under covariate shift. The goal is to learn a regression function with small mean squared error over a target distribution, based on unlabeled data from there and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Kaizheng Wang

High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is:…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-06 Guillaume Dalle , Yohann de Castro

Supervised learning with large-scale data usually leads to complex optimization problems, especially for classification tasks with multiple classes. Stochastic subgradient methods can enable efficient learning with a large number of samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Kartheek Bondugula , Santiago Mazuelas , Aritz Pérez

Recent advances in large-scale models, including deep neural networks and large language models, have substantially improved performance across a wide range of learning tasks. The widespread availability of such pre-trained models creates…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Sai Li , Linjun Zhang

We consider a linear model where the coefficients - intercept and slopes - are random with a law in a nonparametric class and independent from the regressors. Identification often requires the regressors to have a support which is the whole…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-22 Christophe Gaillac , Eric Gautier

We develop an approach for estimating models described via conditional moment restrictions, with a prototypical application being non-parametric instrumental variable regression. We introduce a min-max criterion function, under which the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-15 Nishanth Dikkala , Greg Lewis , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Ibne Farabi Shihab , Sanjeda Akter , Anuj Sharma

When the unknown regression function of a single variable is known to have derivatives up to the $(\gamma+1)$th order bounded in absolute values by a common constant everywhere or a.e. (i.e., $(\gamma+1)$th degree of smoothness), the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-06 Ying Zhu

When concept shifts and sample scarcity are present in the target domain of interest, nonparametric regression learners often struggle to generalize effectively. The technique of transfer learning remedies these issues by leveraging data or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Haotian Lin , Matthew Reimherr

In the setting of nonparametric regression, we propose and study a combination of stochastic gradient methods with Nystr\"om subsampling, allowing multiple passes over the data and mini-batches. Generalization error bounds for the studied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-24 Junhong Lin , Lorenzo Rosasco

A new approach for functional data description is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model with a discrete hidden logistic process which is adapted for modeling curves with abrupt or smooth regime changes. The model…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-30 Faicel Chamroukhi , Allou Samé , Gérard Govaert , Patrice Aknin

We consider non-parametric estimation problems in the presence of dependent data, notably non-parametric regression with random design and non-parametric density estimation. The proposed estimation procedure is based on a dimension…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Nicolas Asin , Jan Johannes

This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Eric Moulines , Pierre Priouret , François Roueff

Drift in machine learning refers to the phenomenon where the statistical properties of data or context, in which the model operates, change over time leading to a decrease in its performance. Therefore, maintaining a constant monitoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Saeed Khaki , Akhouri Abhinav Aditya , Zohar Karnin , Lan Ma , Olivia Pan , Samarth Marudheri Chandrashekar

A default assumption in many machine learning scenarios is that the training and test samples are drawn from the same probability distribution. However, such an assumption is often violated in the real world due to non-stationarity of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Tianyi Zhang , Ikko Yamane , Nan Lu , Masashi Sugiyama

Conventional techniques for supervised classification constrain the classification rules considered and use surrogate losses for classification 0-1 loss. Favored families of classification rules are those that enjoy parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-03 Santiago Mazuelas , Andrea Zanoni , Aritz Perez

Supervised classification techniques use training samples to find classification rules with small expected 0-1 loss. Conventional methods achieve efficient learning and out-of-sample generalization by minimizing surrogate losses over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-12 Santiago Mazuelas , Andrea Zanoni , Aritz Perez

We study the statistical limits of Imitation Learning (IL) in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a state space $\mathcal{S}$. We focus on the known-transition setting where the learner is provided a dataset of $N$ length-$H$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Nived Rajaraman , Yanjun Han , Lin F. Yang , Kannan Ramchandran , Jiantao Jiao

Inference-time scaling methods rely on Process Reward Models (PRMs), which are often poorly calibrated and overestimate success probabilities. We propose, to our knowledge, the first use of conditional optimal transport for calibrating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Rachel Ma , Dylan Hadfield-Menell , Kristjan Greenewald