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Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is…
In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…
Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknown fractions of…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…
Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…
The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved over time through multiple spatial and temporal dynamics. The varying extent of interactions among different geographical areas can result to a complex pattern of spreading so that influences between these…
While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…
This study examines the effectiveness of regional lockdown strategies in mitigating pathogen spread across regional units, termed cities hereinafter. We develop simplified models to analyze infection spread across cities within a country…
Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. Methods: Defining indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, calculated from the daily…
We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to…
To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of…
The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…