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Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) posits a non-parametric Bayesian model on the conditional quantile function, acting as a model over a conditional model for $Y$ given $X$. One of the key ingredients is augmenting the observed data…
We propose a method for learning linear models whose predictive performance is robust to causal interventions on unobserved variables, when noisy proxies of those variables are available. Our approach takes the form of a regularization term…
The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…
We study the problem of computationally efficient robust estimation of the covariance/scatter matrix of elliptical distributions -- that is, affine transformations of spherically symmetric distributions -- under the strong contamination…
In this paper, we examine the distribution and convergence properties of the estimation error $W = X - \hat{X}(Y)$, where $\hat{X}(Y)$ is the Bayesian estimator of a random variable $X$ from a noisy observation $Y = X +\sigma Z$ where…
Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) is widely used in empirical work in economics and other disciplines. As Gaussian approximations perform poorly in the presence of "small denominators," trimming is routinely employed as a regularization…
In this paper, we study the hard and soft support vector regression techniques applied to a set of $n$ linear measurements of the form $y_i=\boldsymbol{\beta}_\star^{T}{\bf x}_i +n_i$ where $\boldsymbol{\beta}_\star$ is an unknown vector,…
In causal inference, the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used to estimate causal effects for estimands within the class of Weighted Average Treatment Effect (WATE). When constructing confidence intervals (CIs),…
In this work we revisit two classic high-dimensional online learning problems, namely linear regression and contextual bandits, from the perspective of adversarial robustness. Existing works in algorithmic robust statistics make strong…
Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…
Consider a pair of random vectors $(\mathbf{X},\mathbf{Y}) $ and the conditional expectation operator $\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{X}|\mathbf{Y}=\mathbf{y}]$. This work studies analytic properties of the conditional expectation by characterizing…
Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift…
We describe the shrinking neighborhood approach of Robust Statistics, which applies to general smoothly parametrized models, especially, exponential families. Equal generality is achieved by object oriented implementation of the optimally…
We consider an empirical likelihood framework for inference for a statistical model based on an informative sampling design. Covariate information is incorporated both through the weights and the estimating equations. The estimator is based…
Let $(X_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=P_n$ if $i\leq n\theta$ and $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=Q_n$ if $i>n\theta$, where $0<\theta <1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We…
We propose a robust Bayesian method for economic models that can be rejected by some data distributions. The econometrician starts with a refutable structural assumption which can be written as the intersection of several assumptions. To…
In this paper we propose a family of robust estimates for isotonic regression: isotonic M-estimators. We show that their asymptotic distribution is, up to an scalar factor, the same as that of Brunk's classical isotonic estimator. We also…
The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test (MWWRST) is a widely used method for comparing two treatment groups in randomized control trials, particularly when dealing with highly skewed data. However, when applied to observational study data,…
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are two sides of the same coin. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated or reliable, ideally in the sense of auto-calibration, where the outcome is a…
We study off-policy evaluation in the setting of contextual bandits, where we aim to evaluate a new policy using historical data that consists of contexts, actions and received rewards. This historical data typically does not faithfully…