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Related papers: Day Ahead Price Forecasting Models in Thin Electri…

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This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Thomas Deschatre , Olivier Féron , Pierre Gruet

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for energy markets stakeholders (e.g. grid operators, energy traders, policymakers) but remains challenging due to the inherent volatility and nonlinearity of price signals. Traditional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Kritchanat Ponyuenyong , Pengyu Tu , Jia Wei Tan , Wei Soon Cheong , Jamie Ng Suat Ling , Lianlian Jiang

In recent years, there has been a significant focus on advancing the next generation of power systems. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges revolve around addressing the operational impact of uncertainty on predicted data,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-15 Hien Thanh Doan , Minsoo Kim , Keunju Song , Hongseok Kim

We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-17 Christopher Kath , Florian Ziel

The largescale penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and their generation uncertainties poses a major challenge for the distribution system operator (DSO) to efficiently determine the day-ahead real and reactive power distribution…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-04-22 M. Nazif Faqiry , Lawryn Edmonds , Hongyu Wu

Data centers (DCs) are emerging as large, geographically distributed, controllable loads whose participation in electricity markets can significantly affect grid operation, especially when cloud platforms shift workloads across sites to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-09 Shijie Pan , Zaint A. Alexakis , Charalambos Konstantinou

This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indicate that such sampling uncertainty, originating from demand…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-17 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor…

Applications · Statistics 2018-05-18 Florian Ziel , Rafal Weron

Accurate household electrical energy demand prediction is essential for effectively managing sustainable Energy Communities. Integrated with the Energy Management System, these communities aim to optimise operational costs. However, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Ehtisham Asghar , Martin Hill , Ibrahim Sengor , Conor Lynch , Phan Quang An

The intraday (ID) electricity market has received an increasing attention in the recent EU electricity-market discussions. This is partly because the uncertainty in the underlying power system is growing and the ID market provides an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-14 Saeed Mohammadi , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

Battery energy storage systems BESSs can provide fast frequency reserves and energy arbitrage in Nordic electricity markets but their limited energy capacity requires accurate revenue forecasts and coordinated bidding across multiple…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Zeenat Hameed , Chresten Traeholt

The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources creates extra challenges in the operation and control of the electricity grid. Demand flexibility markets can help in dealing with these challenges by introducing incentives for…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Khaled Abedrabboh , Luluwah Al-Fagih

Uncertainty in the output power of large-scale wind power plants (WPPs) can face the electricity market players with undesirable profit variations. Market players can hedge themselves against these risks by participating in forward…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-16 Mohsen Banaei , Majid Oloomi Buygi , Hani Raouf-Sheybani , Razgar Ebrahimy , Henrik Madsen

Regulators and utilities have been exploring hourly retail electricity pricing, with several existing programs providing day-ahead hourly pricing schedules. At the same time, customers are deploying distributed energy resources and smart…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-11 Phillippe K. Phanivong , Duncan S. Callaway

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

Tackling climate change requires the rapid and deep decarbonization of electric power systems. While energy management systems (EMSs) play a central role in this transition, conventional EMSs focus mainly on economic efficiency and often…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-10 Young-ho Cho , Mohamad Chehade , Fatima Al-Janahi , Sol Lim , Javad Mohammadi , Hao Zhu

The global race to artificial intelligence competitive advantage is challenging electricity grids by demanding growing data center capacity. Addressing this challenge requires synergistic operational strategies that integrate data centers…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Enea Figini , Mario Paolone

Energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, the quality of which significantly influences the reliability of the results. Some of the variables on the important data source ENTSO-E transparency platform, such…

General Economics · Economics 2023-02-23 Thomas Möbius , Mira Watermeyer , Oliver Grothe , Felix Müsgens

We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-13 Jonathan Berrisch , Florian Ziel

Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational decisions. This paper investigates which statistical…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-01 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Bartosz Uniejewski