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The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-20 Wei Li , Denis Mike Becker

This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Ioannis Dassios

The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-17 Vassilis Kekatos , Yu Zhang , Georgios B. Giannakis

Several approaches have been proposed to forecast day-ahead locational marginal price (daLMP) in deregulated energy markets. The rise of deep learning has motivated its use in energy price forecasts but most deep learning approaches fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Dipanwita Saha , Felipe Lopez

In the Day-Ahead (DA) market, suppliers sell and load-serving entities (LSEs) purchase energy commitments, with both sides adjusting for imbalances between contracted and actual deliveries in the Real-Time (RT) market. We develop a supply…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Agostino Capponi , Garud Iyengar , Bo Yang , Daniel Bienstock

The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Michela Moschella , Mauro Tucci , Emanuele Crisostomi , Alessandro Betti

Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-01 Monika Zimmermann , Florian Ziel

A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2009-05-15 Randall A. LaViolette , Lory A. Ellebracht , Kevin L. Stamber , Charles J. Gieseler , Benjamin K. Cook

Short-term electricity price forecasting has become important for demand side management and power generation scheduling. Especially as the electricity market becomes more competitive, a more accurate price prediction than the day-ahead…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-02-26 Zhongyang Zhao , Caisheng Wang , Matthew Nokleby , Carol Miller

Advancements in smart metering technologies have significantly improved the ability to monitor and manage water utilities. In the context of increasing uncertainty due to climate change, securing water resources and supply has emerged as an…

This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-30 Naser Rostamni , Tarik A. Rashid

The uncertainty in the power supply due to fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) has severe (financial and other) implications for energy market players. In this paper, we present a device-level Demand Response (DR) scheme that…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-05-03 Bijay Neupane , Torben Bach Pedersen , Bo Thiesson

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi , Igor Tchappi , Gilbert Fridgen

Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Jesus Lago , Fjo De Ridder , Peter Vrancx , Bart De Schutter

An effective distribution electricity market (DEM) is required to manage the rapidly growing small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems (DSs). This paper proposes a day-ahead DEM clearing and pricing mechanism…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-15 Zongzheng Zhao , Yixin Liu , Li Guo , Linquan Bai , Chengshan Wang

We present modeling and analysis of day-ahead spatio-temporal energy markets in which each competitive aggregator aims at making the highest profit by managing a complex mixture of different energy resources, such as conventional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Takayuki Ishizaki , Masakazu Koike , Nobuyuki Yamaguchi , Yuzuru Ueda , Jun-ichi Imura

The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-10-24 Haoyong Chen , Lijia Han

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-05-13 Jaydip Sen , Tamal Datta Chaudhuri

Middle-term horizon (months to a year) power consumption prediction is a main challenge in the energy sector, in particular when probabilistic forecasting is considered. We propose a new modelling approach that incorporates trend,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Michele Azzone , Roberto Baviera