Related papers: Gamblers Learn from Experience
This paper presents a computational evolutionary game model to study and understand fraud dynamics in the consumption tax system. Players are cooperators if they correctly declare their value added tax (VAT), and are defectors otherwise.…
Sports organizations often want to estimate athlete strengths. For games with scored outcomes, a common approach is to assume observed game scores follow a normal distribution conditional on athletes' latent abilities, which may change over…
In this paper, we address the problem of testing exchangeability of a sequence of random variables, $X_1, X_2,\cdots$. This problem has been studied under the recently popular framework of testing by betting. But the mapping of testing…
I study a repeated game in which a patient player (e.g., a seller) wants to win the trust of some myopic opponents (e.g., buyers) but can strictly benefit from betraying them. Her benefit from betrayal is strictly positive and is her…
In this paper we predict outgoing mobile phone calls using a machine learning approach. We analyze to which extent the activity of mobile phone users is predictable. The premise is that mobile phone users exhibit temporal regularity in…
Predicting the outcomes of future events is a challenging problem for which a variety of solution methods have been explored and attempted. We present an empirical comparison of a variety of online and offline adaptive algorithms for…
This paper provides an estimate for the handicap effect in the go game, a board game widely played in Asia and other parts of the world. The estimation utilizes a unique handicap assignment rule of the game, where the amount of handicaps…
The usage of mobile devices for mobile learning is becoming increasingly popular. There is a new brand of students in the universities now-a-days who are easily connected to technology and innovative mobile devices. We attempt to do an…
The beautiful theory of statistical gambling, started by Dubins and Savage (for subfair games) and continued by Kelly and Breiman (for superfair games) has mostly been studied under the unrealistic assumption that we live in a continuous…
Behavior trees (BTs) emerged from video game development as a graphical language for modeling intelligent agent behavior. However as initially implemented, behavior trees are static plans. This paper adds to recent literature exploring the…
Mobile applications have been rapidly changing the way business organizations deliver their services to their customers and how customers can interact with their service providers in order to satisfy their needs. The use of mobile…
We consider a variant of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call multi-armed bandit problem with known trend, where the gambler knows the shape of the reward function of each arm but not its distribution. This new problem is motivated…
Competitor rating systems for head-to-head games are typically used to measure playing strength from game outcomes. Ratings computed from these systems are often used to select top competitors for elite events, for pairing players of…
"The chance to win given a certain move" is an easily obtainable quantity from data and often quoted in gaming statistics. It is also the fundamental quantity that reinforcement learning AI bases on. Unfortunately, this conditional…
We analyze the claims that video recreations of shoulder surfing attacks offer a suitable alternative and a baseline, as compared to evaluation in a live setting. We recreated a subset of the factors of a prior video-simulation experiment…
Managing finances is crucial for older adults who are retired and may rely on savings to ensure their life quality. As digital banking platforms (e.g., mobile apps, electronic payment) gradually replace physical ones, it is critical to…
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: "The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law." Yet few…
Take up of microcredit by the poor for investment in businesses or human capital turned out to be very low. We show that this could be explained by risk aversion, without relying on fixed costs or other forms of non-convexity in the…
We consider models of financial markets in which all parties involved find incentives to participate. Strategies are evaluated directly by their virtual wealths. By tuning the price sensitivity and market impact, a phase diagram with…
Multi-head finite-state dimensions and predimensions quantify the predictability of a sequence by a gambler with trailing heads acting as "probes to the past." These additional heads allow the gambler to exploit patterns that are simple but…