Related papers: Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during th…

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the…

The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds,…

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…

In a recent work we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number $R_t$ and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as…

The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…

When the COVID-19 pandemic first emerged in early 2020, healthcare and bureaucratic systems worldwide were caught off guard and largely unprepared to deal with the scale and severity of the outbreak. In Italy, this led to a severe…

Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this paper, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other…

As Europe is facing the second wave of the CoViD-19 pandemic, each country should carefully review how it dealt with the first wave of outbreak. Lessons from the first experience should be useful to avoid indiscriminate closures and, above…

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19…

Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the…

Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions…

In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a…

The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…

In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed…

In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February…

We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…