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We develop tools for selective inference in the setting of group sparsity, including the construction of confidence intervals and p-values for testing selected groups of variables. Our main technical result gives the precise distribution of…
Principal component analysis has been a main tool in multivariate analysis for estimating a low dimensional linear subspace that explains most of the variability in the data. However, in high-dimensional regimes, naive estimates of the…
We propose sparse regression as an alternative to neural networks for the discovery of parsimonious constitutive models (CMs) from oscillatory shear experiments. Symmetry and frame-invariance are strictly imposed by using tensor basis…
Nonsinusoidal oscillatory signals are everywhere. In practice, the nonsinusoidal oscillatory pattern, modeled as a 1-periodic wave-shape function (WSF), might vary from cycle to cycle. When there are finite different WSFs, $s_1,\ldots,s_K$,…
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…
The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…
Multivariate functional data present theoretical and practical complications which are not found in univariate functional data. One of these is a situation where the component functions of multivariate functional data are positive and are…
This paper proposes a new sequential model learning architecture to solve partially observable Markov decision problems. Rather than compressing sequential information at every timestep as in conventional recurrent neural network-based…
For data segmentation in high-dimensional linear regression settings, the regression parameters are often assumed to be sparse segment-wise, which enables many existing methods to estimate the parameters locally via $\ell_1$-regularised…
Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence…
Time series classification is crucial for numerous scientific and engineering applications. In this article, we present a numerically efficient, practically competitive, and theoretically rigorous classification method for distinguishing…
In this paper, we introduce a variant of spectral sparsification, called probabilistic $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-spectral sparsification. Roughly speaking, it preserves the cut value of any cut $(S,S^{c})$ with an $1\pm\varepsilon$…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
Statistical modeling of a nonstationary spatial extremal dependence structure is challenging. Max-stable processes are common choices for modeling spatially-indexed block maxima, where an assumption of stationarity is usual to make…
Learning vector autoregressive models from multivariate time series is conventionally approached through least squares or maximum likelihood estimation. These methods typically assume a fully connected model which provides no direct insight…
High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…
We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs…
Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose…
A Bayesian lattice filtering and smoothing approach is proposed for fast and accurate modeling and inference in multivariate non-stationary time series. This approach offers computational feasibility and interpretable time-frequency…
Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…