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We consider the problem of hypotheses testing with the basic simple hypothesis: observed sequence of points corresponds to stationary Poisson process with known intensity against a composite one-sided parametric alternative that this is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Serguei Dachian , Yury A. Kutoyants

Density aggregation is a central problem in machine learning, for instance when combining predictions from a Deep Ensemble. The choice of aggregation remains an open question with two commonly proposed approaches being linear pooling…

Asymptotic statistical theory for estimating functions is reviewed in a generality suitable for stochastic processes. Conditions concerning existence of a consistent estimator, uniqueness, rate of convergence, and the asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-06 Jean Jacod , Michael Sørensen

The technique known as group averaging provides powerful machinery for the study of constrained systems. However, it is likely to be well defined only in a limited set of cases. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a `renormalized'…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-25 Andres Gomberoff , Donald Marolf

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Hans Dembinski , Michael Schmelling

Filtered Poisson processes are often used as reference models for intermittent fluc- tuations in physical systems. Such a process is here extended by adding a noise term, either as a purely additive term to the process or as a dynamical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-05-04 Audun Theodorsen , Odd Erik Garcia , Martin Rypdal

We analyze the question whether sliding window time averages applied to stationary increment processes converge to a limit in probability. The question centers on averages, correlations, and densities constructed via time averages of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Joseph L. McCauley

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

Asymptotic behavior of the point process of high and medium values of a Gaussian stationary process with discrete time is considered. An approximation by a Poisson cluster point process is given for the point process.

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Vladimir I. Piterbarg

For a macroscopic, isolated quantum system in an unknown pure state, the expectation value of any given observable is shown to hardly deviate from the ensemble average with extremely high probability under generic equilibrium and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-10-24 Peter Reimann

A new ensemble interpretation of quantum mechanics is proposed according to which the ensemble associated to a quantum state really exists: it is the ensemble of all the systems in the same quantum state in the universe. Individual systems…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-05-27 Lee Smolin

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Joel Heinrich , Craig Blocker , John Conway , Luc Demortier , Louis Lyons , Giovanni Punzi , Pekka K. Sinervo

The ensemble properties and time-averaged observables of a memory-induced diffusive-superdiffusive transition are studied. The model consists in a random walker whose transitions in a given direction depend on a weighted linear combination…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-11 Adrian A. Budini

We consider simple random walks on random graphs embedded in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and generated by point processes such as Delaunay triangulations, Gabriel graphs and the creek-crossing graphs. Under suitable assumptions on the point process, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Arnaud Rousselle

Studying the complexity of states sampled from various ensembles is a central component of quantum information theory. In this work we establish the average-case hardness of learning, in the statistical query model, the Born distributions…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-16 Maxwell West

Consider compound Poisson processes with negative drift and no negative jumps, which converge to some spectrally positive L\'evy process with non-zero L\'evy measure. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the local time process,…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-24 Amaury Lambert , Florian Simatos

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Christian Hirsch , Sarat B. Moka , Thomas Taimre , Dirk P. Kroese

We consider when there is absolute or unconditional convergence of series of various types of stochastic processes. These processes include differences of averages in ergodic theory and harmonic analysis, like the classical Cesaro average…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-17 Bryan Johnson , Joseph Rosenblatt

We consider a new type of lookdown processes where spatial motion of each individual is influenced by an individual noise and a common noise, which could be regarded as an environment. Then a class of probability measure-valued processes on…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-05 Hui He

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Dimitrios Milios , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone