Related papers: Time-varying Forecast Combination for High-Dimensi…
A nonparametric and locally adaptive Bayesian estimator is proposed for estimating a binary regression. Flexibility is obtained by modeling the binary regression as a mixture of probit regressions with the argument of each probit regression…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…
This paper considers the problem of estimation in the generalized semiparametric model for longitudinal data when the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. A penalization type of generalized estimating equation method is…
We consider the combination of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts when a large pool of candidate forecasts is available. Given the limited literature in this area, we implement a variety of new combining methods. In…
Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…
This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with a general square integrable semimartingale noise. A model selection adaptive procedure is proposed. Sharp non-asymptotic oracle…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…
Probabilistic time series forecasting predicts the conditional probability distributions of the time series at a future time given past realizations. Such techniques are critical in risk-based decision-making and planning under…
A biomechanical model often requires parameter estimation and selection in a known but complicated nonlinear function. Motivated by observing that data from a head-neck position tracking system, one of biomechanical models, show…
We consider three problems in high-dimensional Gaussian linear mixed models. Without any assumptions on the design for the fixed effects, we construct an asymptotic $F$-statistic for testing whether a collection of random effects is zero,…
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
This paper describes an estimator of the additive components of a nonparametric additive model with a known link function. When the additive components are twice continuously differentiable, the estimator is asymptotically normally…
In the context of a linear model with a sparse coefficient vector, exponential weights methods have been shown to be achieve oracle inequalities for prediction. We show that such methods also succeed at variable selection and estimation…
Probabilistic load forecasts provide comprehensive information about future load uncertainties. In recent years, many methodologies and techniques have been proposed for probabilistic load forecasting. Forecast combination, a widely…
This paper advances a variable screening approach to enhance conditional quantile forecasts using high-dimensional predictors. We have refined and augmented the quantile partial correlation (QPC)-based variable screening proposed by Ma et…
We propose a new method of estimation in high-dimensional linear regression model. It allows for very weak distributional assumptions including heteroscedasticity, and does not require the knowledge of the variance of random errors. The…
This paper aims to build an estimate of an unknown density of the data with measurement error as a linear combination of functions from a dictionary. Inspired by the penalization approach, we propose the weighted Elastic-net penalized…
Penalized least squares estimation is a popular technique in high-dimensional statistics. It includes such methods as the LASSO, the group LASSO, and the nuclear norm penalized least squares. The existing theory of these methods is not…
We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish…