Related papers: Time-varying Forecast Combination for High-Dimensi…
Prediction for high dimensional time series is a challenging task due to the curse of dimensionality problem. Classical parametric models like ARIMA or VAR require strong modeling assumptions and time stationarity and are often…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
Forecasts for uncertain future events should be probabilistic. Probabilistic forecasts are commonly issued as prediction intervals, which provide a measure of uncertainty in the unknown outcome whilst being easier to understand and…
Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…
Unlike its intercept, a linear classifier's weight vector cannot be tuned by a simple grid search. Hence, this paper proposes weight vector tuning of a generic binary linear classifier through the parameterization of a decomposition of the…
Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…
This paper considers quantile model with grouped explanatory variables. In order to have the sparsity of the parameter groups but also the sparsity between two successive groups of variables, we propose and study an adaptive fused group…
We study logistic regression with total variation penalty on the canonical parameter and show that the resulting estimator satisfies a sharp oracle inequality: the excess risk of the estimator is adaptive to the number of jumps of the…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming…
This paper investigates the nonparametric estimation of a circular regression function in an errors-in-variables framework. Two settings are studied, depending on whether the covariates are circular or linear. Adaptive estimators are…
In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional mode of an outcome variable given regressors. To this end, we propose and analyze a computationally scalable estimator derived from a linear quantile regression model and develop…
We develop a set of variable selection methods for the Cox model under interval censoring, in the ultra-high dimensional setting where the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. The methods select covariates via a…
In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…
Shrinkage estimators that possess the ability to produce sparse solutions have become increasingly important to the analysis of today's complex datasets. Examples include the LASSO, the Elastic-Net and their adaptive counterparts.…
This paper presents a formal framework and proposes algorithms to extend forecast reconciliation to discrete-valued data to extend forecast reconciliation to discrete-valued data, including low counts. A novel method is introduced based on…
The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…
In this paper we present nonparametric estimators for coefficients in stochastic differential equation if the data are described by independent, identically distributed random variables. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear ill-posed…
This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…
Online nonparametric estimators are gaining popularity due to their efficient computation and competitive generalization abilities. An important example includes variants of stochastic gradient descent. These algorithms often take one…