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Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium,…
Energy landscapes are high-dimensional surfaces representing the dependence of system energy on variable configurations, which determine crucially the system's emergent behavior but are difficult to be analyzed due to their high-dimensional…
The information theoretic observables entropy (a measure of disorder), excess entropy (a measure of complexity) and multi information are used to analyze ground-state spin configurations for disordered and frustrated model systems in 2D and…
Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…
The thermodynamic and kinetic anomalies of supercooled liquids are analyzed from the perspective of energy landscapes. A mean field model, a generalized random energy model of liquids is developed, which exhibits a dynamical transition of…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in…
A two-dimensional lattice gas model is proposed. The ground state of this model with a fixed density is neither periodic nor quasi-periodic. It also depends on system size in an irregular manner. On the other hand, it is ordered in the…
Several theoretical models predict that spatial patterning increases ecosystem resilience. However, these predictions rely on simplifying assumptions, such as assuming isotropic and infinitely large ecosystems, and empirical evidence…
The main contribution of the current study is two-fold. First, we investigate the energy landscape of the Ising and Potts models on finite two-dimensional lattices without external fields in the low temperature regime. The complete analysis…
Accurate overland runoff and infiltration predictions are critical for effective water resources management, in particular for urban flood management. However, the inherent uncertainty in rainfall patterns, soil properties, and initial…
Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…
Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…
Two-dimensional decaying turbulent flow is known to approach apparently stable states after a long time evolution. A few theories and models have been so far proposed to account for this relaxation. In this paper, we compare results of…
We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure.…
The evolution of particulate and multiphase systems can transition from dynamic regimes, governed by classical transport equations with well-defined damping coefficients, to anomalously slow relaxation described by rate equations when the…
The interactions between a group of components are commonly studied in several areas of science (social science, biology, material science, complex dynamical systems, among others) using the methods of thermodynamics and statistical…
Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the…