Related papers: Dynamical Landscape and Multistability of a Climat…
Confined granular fluids, placed in a shallow box that is vibrated vertically, can achieve homogeneous stationary states thanks to energy injection mechanisms that take place throughout the system. These states can be stable even at high…
Understanding the complex interactions between land surface and atmosphere is essential to improve weather and climate predictions. Various numerical experiments have suggested that regions of strong coupling strength (hotspots) are located…
The formation of dynamical patterns is one of the most striking features of nonequilibrium physical systems. Recent work has shown that such patterns arise generically from forces that violate Newton's third law, known as nonreciprocal…
The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states.…
Stochastic systems often exhibit multiple viable metastable states that are long-lived. Over very long timescales, fluctuations may push the system to transition between them, drastically changing its macroscopic configuration. In realistic…
Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising…
The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…
Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…
It has long been suggested that the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation possesses what has come to be known as `weather regimes', loosely categorised as regions of phase space with above-average density and/or extended persistence. Their…
Long-term stability and physical consistency are critical properties for AI-based weather models if they are going to be used for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts or beyond, e.g., climate change projection. However, current AI-based…
We introduce and solve a general model of dynamic response under external perturbations. This model captures a wide range of systems out of equilibrium including Ising models of physical systems, social opinions, and population genetics.…
Weather regimes provide a useful framework for describing large-scale atmospheric variability and its impacts on regional weather. Despite extensive study, there is still no universally accepted definition or method for identifying weather…
The study of systems with multiple (not necessarily degenerate) metastable states presents subtle difficulties from the mathematical point of view related to the variational problem that has to be solved in these cases. We introduce the…
As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…
We study the time evolution of thermodynamic observables that characterise the dissipative nature of thermal relaxation after an instantaneous temperature quench. Combining tools from stochastic thermodynamics and large-deviation theory, we…
A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…
Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…