Related papers: Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one…
Ebola virus disease is a severe hemorrhagic fever with rapid transmission through infected fluids and surfaces. We develop a fractional-order model using Caputo derivatives to capture memory effects in disease dynamics. An eight-compartment…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
The Ebola virus disease is a severe viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome caused by Ebola virus. This disease is transmitted by direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person and objects contaminated with virus or infected animals,…
Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…
An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an…
The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leonne and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it…
The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can persist in some body fluids after clinical recovery. In Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, there are well-documented cases of EVD reemergence that were associated with previous outbreaks. In…
Much effort has been directed towards using mathematical models to understand and predict contagious disease, in particular Ebola outbreaks. Classical SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartmental models capture well the dynamics of…
In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been been sustained for greater than 10 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to…
We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters.…
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested…
When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that currently requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in the United…
The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous…
The spread of Ebola virus in 2014 is unprecedented. The epidemic is still affecting West Africa, exacerbated by extraordinary socioeconomic disadvantages and health system inadequacies. With the aim of understanding, predicting, and control…