Related papers: Card Guessing with Partial Feedback

Coherent sets of almost desirable gambles and credal sets are known to be equivalent models. That is, there exists a bijection between the two collections of sets preserving the usual operations, e.g. conditioning. Such a correspondence is…

The deck of a graph $G$ is given by the multiset of (unlabelled) subgraphs $\{G-v:v\in V(G)\}$. The subgraphs $G-v$ are referred to as the cards of $G$. Brown and Fenner recently showed that, for $n\geq29$, the number of edges of a graph…

Inspired by the theory of desirable gambles that is used to model uncertainty in the field of imprecise probabilities, I present a theory of desirable things. Its aim is to model a subject's beliefs about which things are desirable. What…

The partial monitoring (PM) framework provides a theoretical formulation of sequential learning problems with incomplete feedback. On each round, a learning agent plays an action while the environment simultaneously chooses an outcome. The…

Fitch Cheney's 5-card trick was introduced in 1950. In 2013, Mulcahy invented a 4-card trick in which the cards are allowed to be displayed face down. We suggest our own invention: a 3-card trick in which the cards can be face down and also…

At the beginning of 2022, a simplistic word-guessing game took the world by storm and was further adapted to many languages beyond the original English version. In this paper, we examine the strategies of daily word-guessing game players…

Advice-efficient prediction with expert advice (in analogy to label-efficient prediction) is a variant of prediction with expert advice game, where on each round of the game we are allowed to ask for advice of a limited number $M$ out of…

We consider the allocation of $m$ balls (jobs) into $n$ bins (servers). In the standard Two-Choice process, at each step $t=1,2,\ldots,m$ we first sample two bins uniformly at random and place a ball in the least loaded bin. It is…

We present a novel multilabel/ranking algorithm working in partial information settings. The algorithm is based on 2nd-order descent methods, and relies on upper-confidence bounds to trade-off exploration and exploitation. We analyze this…

We consider a problem of guessing, wherein an adversary is interested in knowing the value of the realization of a discrete random variable $X$ on observing another correlated random variable $Y$. The adversary can make multiple (say, $k$)…

A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

We use machine learning to provide a tractable measure of the amount of predictable variation in the data that a theory captures, which we call its "completeness." We apply this measure to three problems: assigning certain equivalents to…

In this note, we give an explicit polynomial-time executable strategy for Peter Winkler's hat guessing game that gives superior results if the distribution of hats is imbalanced. While Winkler's strategy guarantees in any case that $\lfloor…

In this article, we look at a hat-guessing game, in which each player must guess the color of their own hat while only seeing the hats of the other players. We focus on the case of two hat colors and a countably infinite number of players.…

Many artificial intelligences (AIs) are randomized. One can be lucky or unlucky with the random seed; we quantify this effect and show that, maybe contrarily to intuition, this is far from being negligible. Then, we apply two different…

We consider the problem of estimating fold-changes in the expected value of a multivariate outcome observed with unknown sample-specific and category-specific perturbations. This challenge arises in high-throughput sequencing studies of the…

The estimation of causal effects using quasiexperiments often relies on the use of unusual or serendipitous sources of exogenous variation. When the goal is estimating the same causal effects across many different settings, the same unusual…

A deck of $n$ cards is shuffled by repeatedly moving the top card to one of the bottom $k_n$ positions uniformly at random. We give upper and lower bounds on the total variation mixing time for this shuffle as $k_n$ ranges from a constant…

In the past three decades, deductive games have become interesting from the algorithmic point of view. Deductive games are two players zero sum games of imperfect information. The first player, called "codemaker", chooses a secret code and…

For every fixed graph $H$ and every fixed $0 < \alpha < 1$, we show that if a graph $G$ has the property that all subsets of size $\alpha n$ contain the ``correct'' number of copies of $H$ one would expect to find in the random graph…