Related papers: Contact Tracing & Super-Spreaders in the Branching…
Tracing potentially infected contacts of confirmed cases is important when fighting outbreaks of many infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic has motivated researchers to examine how different contact tracing strategies compare in terms…
Previous work has shown that for contagion processes on extended star networks (trees with exactly one node of degree > 2), there is a simple, closed-form expression for a highly accurate approximation to the maximum likelihood infection…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…
An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…
For rapidly spreading diseases where many cases show no symptoms, swift and effective contact tracing is essential. While exposure notification applications provide alerts on potential exposures, a fully automated system is needed to track…
Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…
We consider an SEIR epidemic model on a network also allowing random contacts, where recovered individuals could either recover naturally or be diagnosed. Upon diagnosis, manual contact tracing is triggered such that each infected network…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
Contact tracing is a key tool for managing epidemic diseases like HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19. Manual investigations by human contact tracers remain a dominant way in which this is carried out. This process is limited by the number of…
Physical contacts result in the spread of various phenomena such as viruses, gossips, ideas, packages and marketing pamphlets across a population. The spread depends on how people move and co-locate with each other, or their mobility…
COVID-19 remains a challenging global threat with ongoing waves of infections and clinical disease which have resulted millions of deaths and an enormous strain on health systems worldwide. Effective vaccines have been developed for the…
Modelling diffusion processes on dynamic contact networks is an important research area for epidemiology, marketing, cybersecurity, and ecology. However, current diffusion models cannot capture transmissions occurring for indirect…
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and…
We consider a supercritical branching process and define a contact tracing mechanism on its genealogical tree. We calculate the growth rate of the post tracing process, and give conditions under which the tracing is strong enough to drive…
Human social behavior plays a crucial role in how pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 or fake news spread in a population. Social interactions determine the contact network among individuals, while spreading, requiring individual-to-individual…
In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic.…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…