Related papers: Cyclical phenomena in technological change
We propose an evolutionary model to study the transition toward green technology under the influence of innovation. Clean and dirty technologies are selected according to their profitability under an environmental tax, which depends on the…
Over the past six decades, the computing systems field has experienced significant transformations, profoundly impacting society with transformational developments, such as the Internet and the commodification of computing. Underpinned by…
Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be distinguished. These cycles partly coincide with Kondratieff long waves. The changes in the slopes between them indicate discontinuities in the…
We consider long-time behavior of dynamical systems perturbed by a small noise. Under certain conditions, a slow component of such a motion, which is most important for long- time evolution, can be described as a motion on the cone of…
We propose a novel approach to generate chaotic business cycles in a deterministic setting. Rather than producing chaos endogenously, we consider aggregate economic models with limit cycles and equilibriums, subject them to chaotic…
The history of information technology development has been characterized by consecutive waves of boom and bust, as new technologies come to market, fuel surges of investment, and then stabilize towards maturity. However, in recent decades,…
We envision future technologies through science fiction, strategic planning, or academic research. Yet, our expectations do not always match with what actually unfolds, much like navigating a story where some events align with expectations…
Technological developments and the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) are omnipresent themes and concerns of the present day. Much has been written on these topics but applications of quantitative models to understand the techno-social…
Technological parasitism is a new theory to explain the evolution of technology in society. In this context, this study proposes a model to analyze the interaction between a host technology (system) and a parasitic technology (subsystem) to…
Collectives form non-equilibrium social structures characterised by a volatile dynamics. Individuals join or leave. Social relations change quickly. Therefore, differently from engineered or ecological systems, a resilient reference state…
Industry evolution caused by various reasons, among which technology progress driving industry development has been approved, but with the new trend of industry convergence, inter-industry convergence also plays an increasing important…
In this communication, the approach of phenomenological universalities of growth are considered to describe the behaviour of a system showing oscillatory growth. Two phenomenological classes are proposed to consider the behaviour of a…
Functional technical performance usually follows an exponential dependence on time but the rate of change (the exponent) varies greatly among technological domains. This paper presents a simple model that provides an explanatory foundation…
We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into $n$ components, each of which interacts with a cluster of $d-1$ other,…
Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other…
Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different…
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…
Technology was created to support and grow Business. Modern business that uses technology efficiently, grows at a phenomenal rate (Statista.com, 2018). The assumption therefore is that businesses that utilize insufficient technology, or use…
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…