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Estimating the joint effect of a multivariate, continuous exposure is crucial, particularly in environmental health where interest lies in simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple environmental pollutants on health. We develop novel…

The production of waste as a consequence of human activities is one of the most fundamental challenges facing our society and global ecological systems. Waste generation is rapidly increasing, with corresponding shifts in the structure of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-08-18 Mingzhen Lu , Chuanbin Zhou , Chenghao Wang , Robert B. Jackson , Christopher P. Kempes

This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner…

Time-varying electricity pricing better reflects the varying cost of electricity compared to flat-rate pricing. Variations between peak and off-peak costs are increasing due to weather variation, renewable intermittency, and increasing…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-03 Nathan Engelman Lado , Richard Chen , Saurabh Amin

To determine the welfare implications of price changes in demand data, we introduce a revealed preference relation over prices. We show that the absence of cycles in this relation characterizes a consumer who trades off the utility of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-03 Rahul Deb , Yuichi Kitamura , John K. -H. Quah , Jörg Stoye

Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-03 Lauri Valkonen , Santtu Tikka , Jouni Helske , Juha Karvanen

In lending, where prices are specific to both customers and products, having a well-functioning personalized pricing policy in place is essential to effective business making. Typically, such a policy must be derived from observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Christopher Bockel-Rickermann , Sam Verboven , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

This paper develops maintenance policies for a system under condition monitoring. We assume that a number of defects may develop and the degradation process of each defect follows a gamma process, respectively. The system is inspected…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-21 Shaomin Wu , Inma T. Castro

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

In continuous-choice settings, consumers decide not only on whether to purchase a product, but also on how much to purchase. Thus, firms optimize a full price schedule rather than a single price point. This paper provides a methodology to…

General Economics · Economics 2024-08-13 Soheil Ghili , Russ Yoon

How should nations price carbon? This paper examines how the treatment of global inequality, captured by regional welfare weights, affects optimal carbon prices. I develop theory to identify the conditions under which accounting for…

General Economics · Economics 2026-05-07 Simon F. Lang

We develop a new identification strategy for demand estimation when cost shifters may not be available and there are substantial variations in demand over time. This approaches relies on a kind of nonlinear difference-in-differences, in…

General Economics · Economics 2025-12-23 Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Ao Wang , Philippe Février , Lionel Wilner

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

Problem definition: Mining for heterogeneous responses to an intervention is a crucial step for data-driven operations, for instance to personalize treatment or pricing. We investigate how to estimate price sensitivity from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Jean Pauphilet

Modified treatment policies are a widely applicable class of interventions useful for studying the causal effects of continuous exposures. Approaches to evaluating their causal effects assume no interference, meaning that such effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Salvador V. Balkus , Scott W. Delaney , Nima S. Hejazi

We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Giulia Iori , Vassilis Koulovassilopoulos

Our everyday data processing activities create massive amounts of data. Like physical waste and trash, unwanted and unused data also pollutes the digital environment by degrading the performance and capacity of storage systems and requiring…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2011-07-04 Ragib Hasan , Randal Burns

Energy model distortions may unknowingly appear and represent unrealistic and non-physical effects that can mislead optimal model decisions. A prominent misleading effect is unintended storage cycling that was observed in previous…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-10 Maximilian Parzen , Martin Kittel , Daniel Friedrich , Aristides Kiprakis

This study employs the Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) statistical method to analyze the influence of electricity pricing policies on carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the household sector. Investigating the causality between potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Iman Emtiazi Naeini , Zahra Saberi , Khadijeh Hassanzadeh

Plastic pollution is one of the most challenging problems affecting the marine environment of our time. Based on a unique dataset covering four European seas and eight European countries, this paper adds to the limited empirical evidence…