Related papers: Shielding the vulnerable in an epidemic: a numeric…
Two versions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, which have different transmission rules, are analysed. Both models are considered on a weighted network to simulate a mitigation in the connection between the individuals.…
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future. These "severity rates" can change over the course of an epidemic in response to shifting conditions…
Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…
We introduce a deterministic model that partitions the total population into the susceptible, infected, quarantined, and those traced after exposure, the recovered and the deceased. We hypothesize 'accessible population for transmission of…
Traditionally, the identification of parameters in the formulation and solution of inverse problems considers that models, variables and mathematical parameters are free of uncertainties. This aspect simplifies the estimation process, but…
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…
We create a network model to study the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents - poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…
In this paper, we use a linear birth and death process with immigration to model infectious disease propagation when contamination stems from both person-to-person contact and contact with the environment. Our aim is to estimate the…
The goal of this note is to present a simple mathematical model with two parameters for the number of deaths due to the corona (COVID-19) virus. The model only requires basic knowledge in differential calculus, and can also be understood by…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…