Related papers: Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Se…
Generative models of complex systems often require post-hoc parameter adjustments to produce useful outputs. For example, energy-based models for protein design are sampled at an artificially low ''temperature'' to generate novel,…
The goal of this paper is to explore the potential multistability of the climate of a planet around the habitable zone. A thorough investigation of the thermodynamics of the climate system is performed for very diverse conditions of energy…
We discuss the non-equilibrium critical phenomena in liquids, and the models for these phenomena based on local equilibrium and extended scaling assumptions. Special situations are proposed for experimental tests of the theory.…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
Critical decisions frequently rely on high-dimensional output from complex computer simulation models that show intricate cross-variable, spatial and temporal dependence structures, with weather and climate predictions being key examples.…
Temperature scaling is a simple method that allows to control the uncertainty of probabilistic models. It is mostly used in two contexts: improving the calibration of classifiers and tuning the stochasticity of large language models (LLMs).…
To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
A theory of temperature dynamics in many-body systems driven by time-dependent external sources is introduced. The formalism based on the combination of the perturbation theory and the fluctuational-electrodynamics approach in many-body…
Utilizing the information in observations of a complex system to make accurate predictions through a quantitative model when observations are completed at time $T$, requires an accurate estimate of the full state of the model at time $T$.…
Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns,…
Control of cooling and heating processes is essential in many industrial and biological processes. In fact, the time evolution of an observable quantity may differ according to the previous history of the system. For example, a system that…
Fluctuations in conjugate thermodynamic variables are studied using the cross-correlation function. A new procedure is given enabling the derivation of fluctuation formulas for a system in equilibrium. Specifically, the cross-correlation…
We propose a formalism to take account of the correction of the spatial fluctuations to the local self-energy obtained by the dynamical mean-field approximation. For this purpose, the approximate dynamical susceptibility in the framework of…
We propose a new approximation-technique to deal with the exact macroscopic integro-differential evolution equations of statistical systems which self-consistently accounts for dissipative effects. Concentrating on one and two point…
We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…
We investigate the dynamics of multi-mode optical systems driven by two-photon processes and subject to non-local losses, incorporating quantum noise at the Gaussian level. Our findings show that the statistics retrieved from a single…
Long simulation times in climate sciences typically require coarse grids due to computational constraints. Nonetheless, unresolved subscale information significantly influences the prognostic variables and can not be neglected for reliable…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…