Related papers: Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Se…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The reliability of energy systems is strongly influenced by the prevailing climate conditions. With the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources, the interdependence between energy and climate systems has become even stronger. This…
Climate sensitivity has remained stubbornly uncertain since the Charney Report was published some 45 years ago. Two factors in future climate projections could alter this dilemma: (i) an increased ratio of CO$_2$ forcing relative to aerosol…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…
When two initially thermal many-body systems start interacting strongly, their transient states quickly become non-Gibbsian, even if the systems eventually equilibrate. To see beyond this apparent lack of structure during the transient…
Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
In climate science, the tuning of climate models is a computationally intensive problem due to the combination of the high-dimensionality of the system state and long integration times. Supermodelling is a technique which has shown the…
A single-column model run under the weak temperature gradient approximation, a parameterization of large-scale dynamics appropriate for the tropical atmosphere, is shown to have multiple stable equilibria. Under conditions permitting…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
This paper investigates a method to improve buildings' thermal predictive control performance via online identification and excitation (active learning process) that minimally disrupts normal operations. In previous studies we have…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…
This study assesses the relative importance of time integration error in present-day climate simulations conducted with the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) at 1-degree horizontal resolution.…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…