Related papers: Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Se…
The linear response to temperature changes is derived for systems with overdamped stochastic dynamics. Holding both in transient and steady state conditions, the results allow to compute nonequilibrium thermal susceptibilities from…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…
Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and…
Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…