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Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is…
The expected information gain is an important quality criterion of Bayesian experimental designs, which measures how much the information entropy about uncertain quantity of interest $\theta$ is reduced on average by collecting relevant…
In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…
In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters…
In recent years, tremendous progress has been made on numerical algorithms for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) in a very high dimension, using ideas from either nonlinear (multilevel) Monte Carlo or deep learning. They are…
Multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel and multifidelity Monte Carlo, multilevel stochastic collocation, or delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo, have become standard uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools for a wide class of…
We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…
In the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for sequential simulations such as the neural stochastic differential equations, the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is known to offer better theoretical computational complexity compared to the…
There is an increasing interest in estimating expectations outside of the classical inference framework, such as for models expressed as probabilistic programs. Many of these contexts call for some form of nested inference to be applied. In…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
High-dimensional partial differential equations (PDE) appear in a number of models from the financial industry, such as in derivative pricing models, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) models, or portfolio optimization models. The PDEs in…
In this paper, we revisit parameter estimation for multinomial logit (MNL), nested logit (NL), and tree-nested logit (TNL) models through the framework of convex conic optimization. Traditional approaches typically solve the maximum…
Bayesian inference with nested sampling requires a likelihood-restricted prior sampling method, which draws samples from the prior distribution that exceed a likelihood threshold. For high-dimensional problems, Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
This position paper summarizes a recently developed research program focused on inference in the context of data centric science and engineering applications, and forecasts its trajectory forward over the next decade. Often one endeavours…
In this article, we consider multilevel Monte Carlo for the numerical computation of expectations for stochastic differential equations driven by L\'{e}vy processes. The underlying numerical schemes are based on jump-adapted Euler schemes.…
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the GMM estimator in the BLP demand model (Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes, 1995). Inspired by nested pseudo-likelihood methods for dynamic discrete choice models, our approach avoids repeatedly solving…
Estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with non-nested random effects structures requires approximation of high-dimensional integrals. Many existing methods are tailored to the low-dimensional integrals produced by nested…
Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…
We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…