Related papers: Equivalence of Hidden Markov Models with Continuou…
We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…
We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain.…
In this paper we study posterior consistency for different topologies on the parameters for hidden Markov models with finite state space. We first obtain weak and strong posterior consistency for the marginal density function of finitely…
Computing smoothing distributions, the distributions of one or more states conditional on past, present, and future observations is a recurring problem when operating on general hidden Markov models. The aim of this paper is to provide a…
The objective of this paper is to study detectability, observability and related Lyapunov-type theorems of linear discrete-time time-varying stochastic systems with multiplicative noise. Some new concepts such as uniform detectability,…
We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden…
We present and explore a general method for deriving a Lie-Markov model from a finite semigroup. If the degree of the semigroup is $k$, the resulting model is a continuous-time Markov chain on $k$ states and, as a consequence of the product…
De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…
Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant.…
The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a…
Recent research has established sufficient conditions for finite mixture models to be identifiable from grouped observations. These conditions allow the mixture components to be nonparametric and have substantial (or even total) overlap.…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…
Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents…
Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…
We consider that a network is an observation, and a collection of observed networks forms a sample. In this setting, we provide methods to test whether all observations in a network sample are drawn from a specified model. We achieve this…
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present…
In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…