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We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…
We consider the challenge of finding a deterministic policy for a Markov decision process that uniformly (in all states) maximizes one reward subject to a probabilistic constraint over a different reward. Existing solutions do not fully…
We investigate the asymptotic behavior of probability measures associated with stochastic dynamical systems featuring either globally contracting or $B_{r}$-contracting drift terms. While classical results often assume constant diffusion…
The functional characterization of a measure, an essential but delicate aspect of Stein's method, is shown to be accessible for stable probability distributions on convex cones. This notion encompasses the usual stable distributions…
We address stability of a class of Markovian discrete-time stochastic hybrid systems. This class of systems is characterized by the state-space of the system being partitioned into a safe or target set and its exterior, and the dynamics of…
Randomized experiments (a.k.a. A/B tests) are a powerful tool for estimating treatment effects, to inform decisions making in business, healthcare and other applications. In many problems, the treatment has a lasting effect that evolves…
We study the concentration phenomenon for discrete-time random dynamical systems with an unbounded state space. We develop a heuristic approach towards obtaining exponential concentration inequalities for dynamical systems using an entirely…
We study the long-time behavior of stochastic models with an absorbing state, conditioned on survival. For a large class of processes, in which saturation prevents unlimited growth, statistical properties of the surviving sample attain…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
We study two interacting particle systems, both modeled as a system of $N$ stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions with singular kernels and moderate interaction. We show a quantitative result where the convergence rate…
Many economic models feature monotone Markov dynamics on state spaces that may be noncompact. Establishing existence, uniqueness, and stability of stationary distributions in such settings has required a patchwork of sufficient conditions,…
In the setting of stochastic dynamical systems that eventually go extinct, the quasi-stationary distributions are useful to understand the long-term behavior of a system before evanescence. For a broad class of applicable continuous-time…
We present a long-term intrinsically motivated structure learning method for modeling transition dynamics during controlled interactions between a robot and semi-permanent structures in the world. In particular, we discuss how…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium,…
The ordinary contact process is used to model the spread of a disease in a population. In this model, each infected individual waits an exponentially distributed time with parameter 1 before becoming healthy. In this paper, we introduce and…
In a growth-fragmentation system, cells grow in size slowly and split apart at random. Typically, the number of cells in the system grows exponentially and the distribution of the sizes of cells settles into an equilibrium 'asymptotic…
This paper proves that the episodic learning environment of every finite-horizon decision task has a unique steady state under any behavior policy, and that the marginal distribution of the agent's input indeed converges to the steady-state…
We introduce a model of long-range interacting particles evolving under a stochastic Monte Carlo dynamics, in which possible increase or decrease in the values of the dynamical variables is accepted with preassigned probabilities. For…
We study the problem of system identification for stochastic continuous-time dynamics, based on a single finite-length state trajectory. We present a method for estimating the possibly unstable open-loop matrix by employing properly…