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A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Ziqi Xu , Ha Xuan Tran , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-24 Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper,…

In social science researches, causal inference regarding peer effects often faces significant challenges due to homophily bias and contextual confounding. For example, unmeasured health conditions (e.g., influenza) and psychological states…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Shanshan Luo , Kang Shuai , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Causal inference is the process of capturing cause-effect relationship among variables. Most existing works focus on dealing with structured data, while mining causal relationship among factors from unstructured data, like text, has been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-22 Xiao Liu , Da Yin , Yansong Feng , Yuting Wu , Dongyan Zhao

A new method is proposed for exploiting causal independencies in exact Bayesian network inference. A Bayesian network can be viewed as representing a factorization of a joint probability into the multiplication of a set of conditional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-11-17 N. L. Zhang , D. Poole

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

Distinguishing causal connections from correlations is important in many scenarios. However, the presence of unobserved variables, such as the latent confounder, can introduce bias in conditional independence testing commonly employed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Yu Qiao , Yizhou Wang

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Understanding the latent causal factors of a dynamical system from visual observations is considered a crucial step towards agents reasoning in complex environments. In this paper, we propose CITRIS, a variational autoencoder framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Phillip Lippe , Sara Magliacane , Sindy Löwe , Yuki M. Asano , Taco Cohen , Efstratios Gavves

Proximal causal inference (PCI) is a recently proposed framework to identify and estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of hidden confounders, using observed proxies. Specifically, PCI relies on two types of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Prabrisha Rakshit , Xu Shi , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

With the increasing need of personalised decision making, such as personalised medicine and online recommendations, a growing attention has been paid to the discovery of the context and heterogeneity of causal relationships. Most existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-21 Saisai Ma , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Thuc Duy Le

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

One of the common obstacles for learning causal models from data is that high-order conditional independence (CI) relationships between random variables are difficult to estimate. Since CI tests with conditioning sets of low order can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Marcel Wienöbst , Maciej Liśkiewicz

Event causality identification (ECI), a process that extracts causal relations between events from text, is crucial for distinguishing causation from correlation. Traditional approaches to ECI have primarily utilized linguistic patterns and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Haoyu Wang , Fengze Liu , Jiayao Zhang , Dan Roth , Kyle Richardson

We present a method for estimating causal effects in time series data when fine-grained information about the outcome of interest is available. Specifically, we examine what we call the split-door setting, where the outcome variable can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-15 Amit Sharma , Jake M. Hofman , Duncan J. Watts

This paper examines the interdependence generated between two parent nodes with a common instantiated child node, such as two hypotheses sharing common evidence. The relation so generated has been termed "intercausal." It is shown by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 John Mark Agosta

This paper discusses causal independence models and a generalization of these models called causal interaction models. Causal interaction models are models that have independent mechanisms where a mechanism can have several causes. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Christopher Meek , David Heckerman

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…