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This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-30 Florian Gunsilius

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

Causal inference in connected populations is non-trivial, because the treatment assignments of units can affect the outcomes of other units via treatment and outcome spillover. Since outcome spillover induces dependence among outcomes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger

We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-31 Patrick Forré , Joris M. Mooij

This paper explores the role of independence of causal influence (ICI) in Bayesian network inference. ICI allows one to factorize a conditional probability table into smaller pieces. We describe a method for exploiting the factorization in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Nevin Lianwen Zhang , Li Yan

A growing family of approaches to causal inference rely on Bayesian formulations of assumptions that go beyond causal graph structure. For example, Bayesian approaches have been developed for analyzing instrumental variable designs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Sam Witty , David Jensen , Vikash Mansinghka

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Kun Zhang , Zhenjie Zhang , Zhifeng Hao

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Amin Abyaneh , Nino Scherrer , Patrick Schwab , Stefan Bauer , Bernhard Schölkopf , Arash Mehrjou

Establishing causal relationships between actions and outcomes is fundamental for accountable multi-agent decision-making. However, interpreting and quantifying agents' contributions to such relationships pose significant challenges. These…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Stelios Triantafyllou , Aleksa Sukovic , Debmalya Mandal , Goran Radanovic

Conditional independence of treatment assignment from potential outcomes is a commonly used but nonrefutable assumption. We derive identified sets for various treatment effect parameters under nonparametric deviations from this conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-25 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Understanding directed temporal interactions in multivariate time series is essential for interpreting complex dynamical systems and the predictive models trained on them. We present Causal-INSIGHT, a model-agnostic, post-hoc interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Benjamin Redden , Hui Wang , Shuyan Li

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang
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