Related papers: Confidence intervals for parameters in high-dimens…
Many theoretical results for the lasso require the samples to be iid. Recent work has provided guarantees for the lasso assuming that the time series is generated by a sparse Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model with Gaussian innovations.…
We reconcile the two worlds of dense and sparse modeling by exploiting the positive aspects of both. We employ a factor model and assume {the dynamic of the factors is non-pervasive while} the idiosyncratic term follows a sparse vector…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…
We introduce SpinSVAR, a novel method for estimating a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) from time-series data under sparse input assumption. Unlike prior approaches using Gaussian noise, we model the input as independent Laplacian…
We consider statistical inference for impulse responses in sparse, structural high-dimensional vector autoregressive (SVAR) systems. We introduce consistent estimators of impulse responses in the high-dimensional setting and suggest valid…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
We propose a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with a low-rank constraint on the transition matrix. This new model is well suited to predict high-dimensional series that are highly correlated, or that are driven by a small number of hidden…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
Fitting sparse models to high-dimensional time series is an important area of statistical inference. In this paper we consider sparse vector autoregressive models and develop appropriate bootstrap methods to infer properties of such…
This paper proposes a bootstrap-assisted procedure to conduct simultaneous inference for high dimensional sparse linear models based on the recent de-sparsifying Lasso estimator (van de Geer et al. 2014). Our procedure allows the dimension…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…
Standard high-dimensional regression methods assume that the underlying coefficient vector is sparse. This might not be true in some cases, in particular in presence of hidden, confounding variables. Such hidden confounding can be…
By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, identifiability issues have led practitioners to abandon it in favor of the simpler but more restrictive Vector…
Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on…
While considerable advances have been made in estimating high-dimensional structured models from independent data using Lasso-type models, limited progress has been made for settings when the samples are dependent. We consider estimating…
The central problem we address in this work is estimation of the parameter support set S, the set of indices corresponding to nonzero parameters, in the context of a sparse parametric likelihood model for discrete multivariate time series.…
One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the…