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Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-06-24 Martin D. Weinberg

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Yanqin Fan , Hyeonseok Park , Gaoqian Xu

Binomial data with unknown sizes often appear in biological and medical sciences and are usually overdispersed. All previous methods used parametric models and only considered overdispersion due to the variation of sizes. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Wei Zhang

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Covariance matrix estimation arises in multivariate problems including multivariate normal sampling models and regression models where random effects are jointly modeled, e.g. random-intercept, random-slope models. A Bayesian analysis of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-14 Ignacio Alvarez , Jarad Niemi , Matt Simpson

The probability distribution of the order parameter is exploited in order to obtain the criticality of magnetic systems. Monte Carlo simulations have been employed by using single spin flip Metropolis algorithm aided by finite-size scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 P. H. L. Martins , J. A. Plascak

Triangular distributions are a well-known class of distributions that are often used as elementary example of a probability model. In the past, enumeration and order statistic-based methods have been suggested for the maximum likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-16 Hien D Nguyen , Geoffrey J McLachlan

Random fields are useful mathematical tools for representing natural phenomena with complex dependence structures in space and/or time. In particular, the Gaussian random field is commonly used due to its attractive properties and…

The Dirichlet distribution, also known as multivariate beta, is the most used to analyse frequencies or proportions data. Maximum likelihood is widespread for estimation of Dirichlet's parameters. However, for small sample sizes, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-04 Vincenzo Gioia , Euloge Clovis Kenne Pagui

Many multivariate statistical analysis methods and their corresponding probabilistic counterparts have been adopted to develop process monitoring models in recent decades. However, the insightful connections between them have rarely been…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-28 Wanke Yu , Min Wu , Biao Huang , Chengda Lu

Computing and storing probabilities is a hard problem as soon as one has to deal with complex distributions over multiple random variables. The problem of efficient representation of probability distributions is central in term of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-16 David Bellot , Pierre Bessiere

We study the asymmetric binary matrix partition problem that was recently introduced by Alon et al. (WINE 2013) to model the impact of asymmetric information on the revenue of the seller in take-it-or-leave-it sales. Instances of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-04-09 Fidaa Abed , Ioannis Caragiannis , Alexandros A. Voudouris

We introduce a new model for sums of exchangeable binary random variables. The proposed distribution is an approximation to the exact distributional form, and relies on the theory of completely monotone functions and the Laplace transform…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Ryan Elmore

A class of discrete distributions can be derived from stationary renewal processes. They have the useful property that the mean is a simple function of the model parameters. Thus regressions of the distribution mean on covariates can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-01 Rose Baker

We present a novel approach to Gaussian Berezin correlation functions. A formula well known in the literature expresses these quantities in terms of submatrices of the inverse matrix appearing in the Gaussian action. By using a recently…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2009-11-10 Massimo Ostilli

We propose in this paper a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect distribution is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-12 Lizandra C. Fabio , Gilberto A. Paula , Mario de Castro

The inverse Gaussian (IG) is one of the most famous and considered distributions with positive support. We propose a convenient mode-based parameterization yielding the reparametrized IG (rIG) distribution; it allows/simplifies the use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-17 Antonio Punzo

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in statistical methods that exhibit robust performance under distribution changes between training and test data. While most of the related research focuses on point predictions with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Alexander Henzi , Xinwei Shen , Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann

In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-24 Haotian Zhang , Li Li , Dong Liu

This paper studies fundamental aspects of modelling data using multivariate Watson distributions. Although these distributions are natural for modelling axially symmetric data (i.e., unit vectors where $\pm \x$ are equivalent), for…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-28 Suvrit Sra , Dmitrii Karp