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We establish a rather sharp two-side estimate for the tail probability of the derivative martingale limit in a branching random walk throughout the entire subcritical regime, confirming a conjecture by Lacoin, Rhodes, and Vargas (\emph{Duke…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Xinxin Chen , Yichao Huang , Heng Ma

In this paper, we study asymptotic behaviors of the tails of extinction time and maximal displacement of a critical branching killed L\'{e}vy process $(Z_t^{(0,\infty)})_{t\ge 0}$ in $\mathbb{R}$, in which all particles (and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-16 Haojie Hou , Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Ron Doney , Claudia Klüppelberg , Ross Maller

Pure-jump L\'evy processes are popular classes of stochastic processes which have found many applications in finance, statistics or machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel family of self-decomposable L\'evy processes where one…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Fadhel Ayed , Juho Lee , François Caron

A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jaume Masoliver , Miquel Montero , Alan McKane

We use the properties of the Matuszewska indices to show asymptotic inequalities for hazard rates. We discuss the relation between membership in the classes of dominatedly or extended rapidly varying tail distributions and corresponding…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-26 Anastasios G. Bardoutsos , Dimitrios G. Konstantinides

In this paper, we consider the state-dependent reflecting random walk on a half-strip. We provide explicit criteria for (positive) recurrence, and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution. As a consequence, the light-tailed…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-31 Wenming Hong , Meijuan Zhang , Yiqiang Q. Zhao

We give a concise self-contained presentation of known and new limit theorems for the one-type Markov branching processes with continuous time. The new streamlined proofs are based on what we call, the tail generating function approach. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-07 Serik Sagitov

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Anja Janssen , Holger Drees

We give an explicit description of the law of terminal value $W$ of additive martingales in a remarkable branching stable process. We show that the right tail probability of the terminal value decays exponentially fast and the left tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Hairuo Yang

The tail chain of a Markov chain can be used to model the dependence between extreme observations. For a positive recurrent Markov chain, the tail chain aids in describing the limit of a sequence of point processes $\{N_n,n\geq1\}$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Sidney I. Resnick , David Zeber

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

We study the asymptotic tail behaviour of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for asymptotically $\alpha$-stable L\'evy processes with $\alpha<1$. Our main result states that if the left tail of the L\'evy measure is regularly…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-14 Frank Aurzada , Tanja Kramm

Ba\~nuelos and Bogdan (2004) and Bogdan, Palmowski and Wang (2016) analyse the asymptotic tail distribution of the first time a stable (L\'evy) process in dimension $d\geq 2$ exists a cone. We use these results to develop the notion of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Andreas E. Kyprianou , Victor Rivero , Weerapat Satitkanitkul

We study the proposal by Mersini et al. that the observed dark energy might be explained by the back-reaction of the set of tail modes in a theory with a dispersion relation in which the mode frequency decays exponentially in the…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2018-11-20 L. L. Graef , R. Brandenberger

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier , Olivier Wintenberger , Rafa Kulik

We study the behavior of the tail of a measure $\mu^{\boxtimes t}$, where $\boxtimes t$ is the $t$-fold free multiplicative convolution power for $t\geq 1$. We focus on the case where $\mu$ is a probability measure on the positive half-line…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-20 Bartosz Kołodziejek , Kamil Szpojankowski

Using a very simple argument based on the indepenence of increments and the fact that in a finite dimensional space $R^{d}$ there are not too many directions, we derive a theorem stating that exit time of any (non-constant) L\'{e}vy process…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-07 Rafał Marcin Łochowski

In this paper we solve the exit problems for (reflected) spectrally negative L\'evy processes, which are exponentially killed with a killing intensity dependent on the present state of the process and analyze respective resolvents. All…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Bo Li , Zbigniew Palmowski