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We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-21 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

We study the problem of designing consistent sequential two-sample tests in a nonparametric setting. Guided by the principle of testing by betting, we reframe this task into that of selecting a sequence of payoff functions that maximize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Aaditya Ramdas

Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fernando G Zampieri

We consider a variant of sequential testing by betting where, at each time step, the statistician is presented with multiple data sources (arms) and obtains data by choosing one of the arms. We consider the composite global null hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Ricardo J. Sandoval , Ian Waudby-Smith , Michael I. Jordan

We present a probabilistic ranking model to identify the optimal treatment in multiple-response experiments. In contemporary practice, treatments are applied over individuals with the goal of achieving multiple ideal properties on them…

The technique of ``testing by betting" frames nonparametric sequential hypothesis testing as a multiple-round game, where a player bets on future observations that arrive in a streaming fashion, accumulates wealth that quantifies evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Can Chen , Jun-Kun Wang

We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-19 Ben Chugg , Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Bryan Wilder , Aaditya Ramdas

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stephen Bates , Michael I. Jordan , Michael Sklar , Jake A. Soloff

Experimentation involves risk. The investigator expends time and money in the pursuit of data that supports a hypothesis. In the end, the investigator may find that all of these costs were for naught and the data fail to reject the null.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-25 Thomas Cook , Patrick Flaherty

The synthetic control method is often applied to problems with one treated unit and a small number of control units. A common inferential task in this setting is to test null hypotheses regarding the average treatment effect on the treated.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Lihua Lei , Timothy Sudijono

Mean-based estimators of causal effects in randomized experiments may behave poorly if the potential outcomes have a heavy tail or contain outliers. An alternative estimator proposed by Rosenbaum (1993) estimates a constant additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Aditya Ghosh , Nabarun Deb , Bikram Karmakar , Bodhisattva Sen

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

This paper considers the problem of inference after ranking. In our setting, we are interested in any population whose rank according to some random quantity, such as an estimated treatment effect, a measure of value-added, or benefit (net…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-06 Andreas Petrou-Zeniou , Azeem M. Shaikh

In this paper, we address the problem of testing exchangeability of a sequence of random variables, $X_1, X_2,\cdots$. This problem has been studied under the recently popular framework of testing by betting. But the mapping of testing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Aytijhya Saha , Aaditya Ramdas

Treatment effect heterogeneity is of a great concern when evaluating policy impact: "is the treatment Pareto-improving?", "what is the proportion of people who are better off under the treatment?", etc. However, even in the simple case of a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Myungkou Shin

Given a pair of non-negative random variables $X$ and $Y$, we introduce a class of nonparametric tests for the null hypothesis that $X$ dominates $Y$ in the total time on test order. Critical values are determined using bootstrap-based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Tommaso Lando , Sirio Legramanti

We consider the problem of generating confidence sets in randomized experiments with noncompliance. We show that a refinement of a randomization-based procedure proposed by Imbens and Rosenbaum (2005) has desirable properties. Namely, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-11 P. M. Aronow , Haoge Chang , Patrick Lopatto

In two influential contributions, Rosenbaum (2005, 2020) advocated for using the distances between component-wise ranks, instead of the original data values, to measure covariate similarity when constructing matching estimators of average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Matias D. Cattaneo , Fang Han , Zhexiao Lin
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