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Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-confident in their predictions. Consequently, methods have been…

Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Amirhossein Shantia , Anselm Haselhoff

This paper investigates novel classifier ensemble techniques for uncertainty calibration applied to various deep neural networks for image classification. We evaluate both accuracy and calibration metrics, focusing on Expected Calibration…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Michael Schulze , Nikolas Ebert , Laurenz Reichardt , Oliver Wasenmüller

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Teodora Popordanoska , Aleksei Tiulpin , Matthew B. Blaschko

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Niki Amini-Naieni , Tomas Jakab , Andrea Vedaldi , Ronald Clark

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wenjian Huang , Guiping Cao , Jiahao Xia , Jingkun Chen , Hao Wang , Jianguo Zhang

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Although deep learning prediction models have been successful in the discrimination of different classes, they can often suffer from poor calibration across challenging domains including healthcare. Moreover, the long-tail distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Riqiang Gao , Thomas Li , Yucheng Tang , Zhoubing Xu , Michael Kammer , Sanja L. Antic , Kim Sandler , Fabien Moldonado , Thomas A. Lasko , Bennett Landman

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

Albeit achieving high predictive accuracy across many challenging computer vision problems, recent studies suggest that deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overconfident predictions, rendering them poorly calibrated. Most of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bimsara Pathiraja , Malitha Gunawardhana , Muhammad Haris Khan

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made great strides in pushing the state-of-the-art in several challenging domains. Recent studies reveal that they are prone to making overconfident predictions. This greatly reduces the overall trust in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Vinith Kugathasan , Muhammad Haris Khan

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Recent studies have shown that deep neural networks are not well-calibrated and often produce over-confident predictions. The miscalibration issue primarily stems from using cross-entropy in classifications, which aims to align predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Daehwan Kim , Haejun Chung , Ikbeom Jang

Trustworthiness in neural networks is crucial for their deployment in critical applications, where reliability, confidence, and uncertainty play pivotal roles in decision-making. Traditional performance metrics such as accuracy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Koffi Ismael Ouattara , Ioannis Krontiris , Theo Dimitrakos , Frank Kargl

Handling uncertainty is critical for ensuring reliable decision-making in intelligent systems. Modern neural networks are known to be poorly calibrated, resulting in predicted confidence scores that are difficult to use. This article…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Gabriele Sanguin , Arjun Pakrashi , Marco Viola , Francesco Rinaldi

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown competitive results in many fields. Despite this success, they often suffer from poor calibration, especially in safety-critical scenarios such as autonomous driving and healthcare,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Jiani Ni , He Zhao , Yibo Yang , Dandan Guo

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou