Related papers: Dependent Conditional Value-at-Risk for Aggregate …
In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
Machine learning (ML) models used in prediction and classification tasks may display performance disparities across population groups determined by sensitive attributes (e.g., race, sex, age). We consider the problem of evaluating the…
The Value-at-Risk (VaR) of comonotonic sums can be decomposed into marginal VaR's at the same level. This additivity property allows to derive useful decompositions for other risk measures. In particular, the Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) and…
The stability of a complex financial system may be assessed by measuring risk contagion between various financial institutions with relatively high exposure. We consider a financial network model using a bipartite graph of financial…
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…
The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods…
Forecasting risk (as measured by quantiles) and systemic risk (as measured by Adrian and Brunnermeiers's (2016) CoVaR) is important in economics and finance. However, past research has shown that predictive relationships may be unstable…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
We consider continuous-time stochastic optimal control problems featuring Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the objective. The major difficulty in these problems arises from time-inconsistency, which prevents us from directly using…
Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including…
By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…
We study a discrete-time multi-period portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the excess of Conditional Value-at-Risk over expected terminal wealth. The…
This paper addresses allocation methodologies for a risk measure inherited from ruin theory. Specifically, we consider a dynamic value-at-risk (VaR) measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin…
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
Autonomous cyber and cyber-physical systems need to perform decision-making, learning, and control in unknown environments. Such decision-making can be sensitive to multiple factors, including modeling errors, changes in costs, and impacts…
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…
In this work we want to provide a general principle to evaluate the CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) for a vulnerable option, that is an option subject to some default event, concerning the solvability of the issuer. CVA is needed to evaluate…
This paper is devoted to the quantification and analysis of marginal risk contribution of a given single financial institution i to the risk of a financial system s. Our work expands on the CoVaR concept proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier…
In this paper, we propose a novel axiomatic approach to evaluating the joint risk of multiple insurance risks under dependence uncertainty. Motivated by both the theory of expected utility and the Cobb-Dauglas utility function, we establish…